Monday, October 18, 2010

Is Calling on AJ the Right Move?

AJ Burnett has been the picture of inconsistency and frustration this year for the Yankees starting rotation, so many fans wonder if calling on AJ Burnett in Game 4 is the right decision in a pivotal point in this series.  This fan breaks it down.

The Pros
Well, it can't get much worse.  Through the first three games, the Yankees have had one slightly bad start by CC Sabathia, one very bad start from Phil Hughes, and a very strong outing by Andy Pettite, coming away with a victory in only Sabathia's stint.  Two Yankee hurlers, who racked up 39 wins total in the regular season, were both less than dazzling in their respective starts.  Sabathia, who is in contention for the AL Cy Young, was pretty bad throwing 4 innings, and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits while walking 4.  Hughes, in his first full year as a starter, was absolutely shelled.  Hughes also only lasted 4 innings yielding 7 runs on 10 hits, walking 3.  While Andy Pettite was solid, he was no match for the younger southpaw, Cliff Lee.  Pettite tossed 7 innings of 2 run, 5 hit ball.  His only mistake was to Josh Hamilton in the first inning who teed off for his 2nd homer of the series, giving Lee the only support he would need.  Lee once again dominated the Yankees.  Lee pitched a gem of a game going for 8 innings while allowing no runs, 2 hits, and striking out 13.  Can Burnett turn this series around in favor of the Yankees?  If Burnett is on, that curveball mixed in with a plus fastball is a devastating combination.  He can fool a hitter with the best of the best in this league.  Can.  Not will, but can.  Burnett is plenty rested, and he should also be well prepared to face this Rangers lineup.

The Cons
Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi seem to think AJ can turn this around, but as an avid Yankees fan, trusting Burnett is a difficult thing to ask of me.  Burnett put up his worst year ever statistically.  For a guy with great stuff, he's always been around a .500 pitcher, and you can blame that on his control.  While he's always near the top of the league in wild pitches, this year, he actually led the entire league.  Burnett, in this fan's opinion, is also a pitcher with a weak psyche.  He needs to have the backup catcher as his battery mate, which is selfish, and only hurts the team offensively.  He needs to blame the catcher instead of himself for the mistakes he makes in the game.  Newsflash AJ: Jorge Posada has caught two perfect games and has 4 championships.  Maybe it's not him.  It seems when something goes wrong in an inning, whether it be an error, or a bad call, AJ compounds on that to make it a big inning for the offense he's pitching against. 

Keys to Success
#1- Strike One.  Strike one is absolutely the biggest key to success for AJ Burnett.  He needs to get into a rhythm early.  If he starts to walk batters early, it's going to be a long night for the Yankees. 
#2- Don't rattle.  I know that sound like more of a command than a thing to work on, and that's because it is.  Burnett must stay focused on the mound.  But more than that, he needs to stay alert to anyone on the base paths.  He is very bad at holding runners on, and that can spell doom for the Yankees. 
#3- Minimize damage.  When you get a tough break, like a bad call on a pitch, or a fielding mistake, just move on.  AJ has a habit of letting these things take over an inning, and it cannot happen in this game, which just might be the biggest game of his career. 

Prediction
I hope and think that AJ Burnett has taken his demotion seriously, and to the heart.  More importantly, I think that he feels he has something to prove.  I think Burnett will have a strong game, something the Yankees need tomorrow night, against a guy who is not Cliff Lee, so they might actually score.  The Yankees need to win the next two, and take this ALCS back to Texas, and it all starts with AJ.  So tomorrow night, look for AJ to finally harness his fastball and curveball for 7 innings, because if he doesn't, it's likely that it will end their season. 
Yankees win 5-3 on a strong outing by Burnett. 

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