The Jets try to avenge their Conference Championship loss to the Colts in last year's postseason tonight. It's not the same Jets team that took the field at the Oil Can last year. And it sure isn't the same Colts squad that advanced to the Super Bowl last year. The Jets have added Santonio Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor. The Colts have lost to injury Dallas Clark, Austin Collie (both had TDs in last year's game), and Bob Sanders. I heard this on the radio this week, and I actually buy this statement: The Colts, being as ravaged by injuries as they are, can lose this game with no repercussions. Being that there are no repercussions, then Manning can basically go out there, take all the chances he wants, without having to hear the criticism of him being a great regular season quarterback and not the postseason quarterback. This makes the Colts very dangerous in the 2011 playoffs. Here's a breakdown of how the Colts should play the game, and then how the Jets should play.
Two words. Fast. Loose. That's exactly how the Colts should play this game. The Colts have had so many injuries this year, that if they lose the game, the season will be blamed on that. So you should play with no fear. Reggie Wayne is still playing, as is Pierre Garcon. Those are two receivers who can torch a defense for big games. With Joseph Addai back from injury, the Colts have a legitimate running game again. And most importantly, the best quarterback I have ever seen play is still taking the snaps. Peyton Manning didn't have his best season this year, but surprise, they're back in the playoffs. The loss of a top 5 tight end in Dallas Clark was devastating, but Jacob Tamme playing fullback has filled in nicely for the passing game. The Jets have a non existent pass rush when they rush 3-5, and the Colts were tied for 1st in quarterback protection. They allowed only 16 sacks for the season. So, Peyton Manning will have his normal all day time to pick apart the Jets.
Defensively, the Colts can't stop the run, and are middle of the pack defending the pass. But again, they have nothing to lose here. So, blitzing all game will load the box against the run, and can rattle Mark Sanchez. And when Mark Sanchez is rattled, he tends to turn the ball over. With Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the Colts have, arguably, the most feared defensive ends in the game. Apart from getting to the quarterback, these two love to strip the ball. Sanchez has only been stripped 5 times this year, but Freeney has forced 5 by himself. Freeney and Mathis could give D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Damien Woody fits all night.
Colts Secret Weapon: It's not much of a secret. The Colts have a kicker in Adam Vinatieri that has ice running through his veins. If this comes down to a Colts field goal in the closing minutes, bank on the Colts.
The Jets have a problem on their offense. And it's the biggest problem an offense can have. An inconsistent quarterback. Out of all quarterbacks that started at least 14 games, he has the worst completion percentage, residing at 54.8%. He also has the second worst quarterback rating, 75.3. That being said, Sanchez has led his team in some great comebacks this season. At times, he looked to be a Pro-Bowl QB. Sanchez needs to just manage the game tonight. He needs to rely on his stout running game that includes two backs that rushed for over 700 yards each. Tomlinson is healthy and ready to go against a Colts defense that was ranked 25th in rushing defense this year. If the Jets running game can control the time of possession, and Sanchez can be accurate in his short passing game, the Jets have a great shot at advancing. Now, if Brian Schottenheimer decides that the only way to win this game is to play run and gun, the Jets can get into a little trouble. Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are two exceptional receivers, and they can both burn a defense not prepared for them. Holmes is a possession plus receiver. He catches a lot of balls, and any one those slants he runs can turn into a game changing play. Braylon Edwards can stretch the field, and if he holds onto the ball, he can break one as well. But for those things to go right, the Jets need Sanchez ready to make those plays. It's exciting football, but it's not the way the Jets should try and win this game. Be the smashmouth team that Rex Ryan claims he has.
Defensively, the Jets give up big chinks of yards at times, but don't give up many points. But for the most part, they are every bit of a staunch defense their numbers claim. They have the 6th ranked pass defense, and the 3rd ranked rush defense. Losing Jim Leonard was unfortunate, and to have him replaced by Eric Smith is not ideal. Jason Taylor has only 5 sacks on the season, a sack behind Bryan Thomas for the team lead. If they're going to disrupt the Colts offense, they need to pressure Peyton Manning into throwing bad passes. Hurried passes means turnover opportunities, even for the great Peyton Manning. Pressure Manning with Taylor, Pace, and Thomas and give Revis, Cromartie, and crew a chance to change the game with an interception.
Jets Secret Weapon: If the Jets can find it within their playbook to run the wildcat, then Brad Smith can be the player to watch. Super special teamer/Wildcat QB Brad Smith is as dangerous as they come. The jets have only run two passing plays off the Wildcat this year, so the Colts probably wouldn't be prepared for it. That could tip the scales in favor of the Jets.
Prediction: I find it hard to pick against the Colts and Peyton Manning. So I predict that the Colts win 17-16. Magic 8 Ball disagreed. He said Jets by a field goal.
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