The New York Football Giants have given us all reason to doubt that they are legitimate contenders for the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season. Let's go back to opening day where Rex Grossman shredded the Giants secondary for 305 yards and 2 TDs for an opening day loss. Eli Manning didn't quite back up his preseason statement of being a top 5 quarterback in this league either, as he threw for 268 yards and an interception. The Giants have a penchant for losing to teams that they should beat, and winning games against teams that they should lose to. They've beaten Philadelphia, New England, and Dallas twice. They also lost to the Redskins (twice), Seahawks, and then to a depleted, Vince Young-led Philadelphia Eagles squad. The Giants will drive you absolutely nuts with last minute wins (see Arizona, New England). Then the Giants will make you lose faith (see New Orleans). And at last the Giants will have you believing (see Green Bay even though they lost). Why are the Giants so inconsistent? The talent is there. We see it every game in a still underrated quarterback in Eli Manning, in a speedy and high octane receiver in Victor Cruz, in a young, freakishly athletic defensive end in Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants will drive you nuts, but they are an exciting team to watch. Did anyone expect the Giants to go out last Sunday and have the defense pitch a shutout against a very talented offensive team? Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, and rookie Julio Jones should add up to mucho points. But when this Giants team plays the way they are capable of, they are a good defense. When the pass rush is getting pressure all game, the secondary performs better, even the linebackers perform better. When this last place rushing attack is getting holes from their just-now gelling offensive line, and Brandon Jacobs is finally hitting the corners, it is still a potent rushing attack. When it looks like Mario Manningham is finally showing up this season, the Giants can boast a passing attack as good as any other in the league. The Giants, in their storied history, have never had a better offense than they do today. The Giants have their best quarterback of all time, with probably their two best receivers of all time, and finally have the best defensive front four in the game. With a healthy Osi Umenyiora, a rejuvenated Justin Tuck, and All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul, no one in the league can generate more havoc on the quarterback than these Giants. Yet, there is still reason to worry. The Giants will face one of the best offenses in the history of the league. The Packers had an extra week to rest, and get healthy. So let's look at the teams from each position/group.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers is by most accounts your NFL MVP. I would argue that Drew Brees had the better season, but I'm not going to sugar coat it. Aaron Rodgers is probably the best at what he does. Over 4,600 yards thrown for, 45 TDs, and only 6 interceptions. Now that's a season we don't see every year. Don't forget that he is one of the more dangerous quarterbacks in the league with his feet as well. Rodgers will look to throw first, but don't sleep on the scrambler.
Eli Manning has had is best season since coming into the league this year. 4th in the league with 4,933 yards thrown for, 29 TDs, 16 interceptions, and the 7th best QB rating in the league. He is a SB MVP, he's not afraid of the big game, and he has a 4th quarter magic aura about him. In a record breaking season for quarterbacks throughout the league, Eli has broken one important record this year. He now holds the record for TDs thrown in the 4th quarter, with 15.
Edge:
Running Game
Ryan Grant and James Starks have had equal touches for about the same yardage. The Packers as a team are 27th in the league with about 97 rush yds per game. The Packers are pass oriented, and run as an afterthought kind of team. The Giants stuffed Michael Turner pretty well in the Wild Card round, so look for the Packers to throw even more.
Brandon Jacobs looked like the Jacobs of '08 last week against the Falcons. I can't remember seeing Jacobs turn the corner as much as he did on Sunday. If Jacobs can continue to run well outside, and downhill the Giants can slow down the game and control the clock. Bradshaw is equally important here. Jacobs to bash early and Bradshaw to burn later. This doesn't look like the worst rushing team in the NFL the past few weeks.
Edge:
Receiving Corps
The Packers have arguably the games best wide receiving corps in the game. With the triple threat of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and sprinkles of James Jones and Donald Driver, Green Bay has it all. Nelson had a career year with 68 catches, 1,263 yards, and 15 touchdowns. He has been one of the best receivers in the game since the start of last season's playoffs. A healthy Greg Jennings will give the Pack their 1-2 punch back that they have missed since he was injured against the Raiders in the second week of December.
The Giants are one of two teams in the NFL (Steelers) to boast two wide outs with 1,000+ yard seasons. The second year sensation, Victor Cruz, has made the Giants one of the elite passing attacks in the league. Add Cruz to the third year pro Hakeem Nicks, and the tandem has combined for 154 catches, 2,728 yards, and 16 TDs. The Giants love big plays as Cruz and Nicks have made everyone aware. Cruz had 5 60+ yard catches this season, including an NFL record tying 99 yard touchdown catch and run, mostly run. Add in Mario Manningham who looks to have woken up, and this is arguably one of the best receiving corps in the league.
Edge: Even
Offensive Line
The Packers offensive line is average, at best. They don't make many big holes for the running game, and Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 39 times, which is tied for 6th most in the NFL. While the run blocking isn't a very important piece for the Packers game plan, pass protection sure is. For a line that allowed their quarterback to be sacked 39 times in 15 games and going up against one of the more formidable defensive lines in the game, this could prove to be the most important part of the Packers success.
The Giants struggled early in the season in their pass protection, but midway through the year they found their stride. They struggled even more in run blocking for most of the year, but in the last 5 weeks, have blocked well enough to have 4-100 yard rushing games. They have allowed Eli to be sacked 28 times, and that is the 5th least out of any quarterback to start each game this season.
Edge:
Secondary
The Packers have the worst statistical secondary in the league which is strange. The reason this is strange is because they have one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Charles Woodson is still a force to be reckoned with, even at the ripe age of 35. Woodson had 7 interceptions on the year. The Packers concede a lot of yards. Not just in their secondary, but their entire defense. The best part of this secondary, is that they are opportunistic. Make a mistake, and they will capitalize on it. They are of a ball hog mentality, which at times can hurt them. Going after the ball will make you prone to the big play, which the Giants can kill you on. The last game this secondary played, they had just given up 520 yards through the air.
The Giants secondary is statistically better than the Packers, but the best defensive back in this game will be suiting up for the Pack. While they are better than the Packers, statistically, it isn't by much. The Giants have given up lots of yards all season, but in the last 4 games, they have held the opposing quarterback to under 300 yards twice, and under 200 yards twice. The secondary is clicking at just the right time. The Giants held Matt Ryan to 199 yards and a measly 4.9 yards per pass.
Edge:
Linebackers
The Packers biggest strength on defense is the play by their linebackers. Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, and Clay Matthews form the best linebacker corps left in this years playoffs. Bishop leads the Packers in tackles with 115 and these three players account for 12.5 of the 28 sacks that the defense has garnered all season. Matthews has six sacks to go along with three interceptions, while Bishop had 5 sacks and Hawk racked up 1.5. Clay Matthews is all over the field, and you have to love his hustle, but Bishop has been the Packers best linebacker all year.
Some thought that this would be the weakest part of the Giants defense this year, but this group has played pretty well considering the season ending injury to Jonathan Goff in preseason. Rookie Jacquian Williams has played well, even tough he has begun splitting time with Chase Blackburn, who has returned to play very well with the Giants. Michael Boley has been their best linebacker and it has showed in the last two weeks with huge stops on 4th and 1's against the Cowboys and the Falcons. Mathias Kiwanuka has played extremely well this year. He has garnered 84 tackles, 3.5 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. The weakest part of this group is their coverage skills. Jermichael Finley can prove to be a problem for these linebackers.
Edge:
Defensive Line
The Packers front four is nothing to write home about, although they do one thing pretty well. When it comes to stuffing the run, the Packers are 14th in the league, allowing 111 yards per game. Again, it's nothing special, but it's average. If the Packers are going to win this game, they will need to stop the up and coming Giants offensive line and running game. If the Packers control the line of scrimmage, they can dictate the tempo of the game. And they want this to be a shootout. Getting after the quarterback is not what the Packers specialize in, in fact they are 27th in the league. They live and die on the turnover.
The Giants defensive front is arguably the best in the game, especially in recent weeks. Since Osi Umenyiora has returned, the Giants have been revitalized in getting after the quarterback. The Giants were ranked third in the league with 48 sacks. Jason Pierre-Paul, in his breakout All-Pro season, racked up 16.5 sacks, Umenyiora has added 9 in his shortened season, Tuck has had 5 in his injury plagued year, while backup Dave Tollefson has even contributed 5, and that's just at defensive end.
Edge:
Keys to the Game
The Packers need their offensive line to stop the Giants pass rush and let Aaron Rodgers win this game. Rodgers won't turn the ball over, and he can extend plays with his legs. The secondary needs to be patient. They cannot be too aggressive with receivers such as Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Last week the Falcons put their safety help on Cruz, and Nicks burned them for 115 yards and 2 scores. This week Nicks needs the attention of Woodson and a safety.
The Giants best shot at this game is not to play shootout with Aaron Rodgers and company. Control the clock, control the game. Slow this game down with the run game. If the Giants can dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, it can be a long day for the Packers. Have Blackburn/Williams/Boley spy Rodgers. Not all of the time of course, but at least 25% of the time. Capitalize on red zone possessions. Field goals will not win this game. The Giants need to punch it in when they have the chance.
After looking over these categories, you'd think the Giants would have the better team and record, but that is not case. Aaron Rodgers is the biggest X-factor for Sunday's Divisional Round match up. My head tells me Packers 31- 28, but my heart says Giants 34- 31. I'm going with my heart. I can't pick against the Giants. If momentum counts for anything, my heart will prove to be right.
Giants 34 Packers 31
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