Tebowmania Hits New York

The most polarizing quarterback in the NFL, and possibly in NFL history, is now a New York Jet.  After committing to Mark Sanchez to the tune of a four year, $40.5 M contract, and to a fairly good back up in Drew Stanton, the New York Jets traded a 4th round and 6th round pick to acquire Tim Tebow from the Denver Broncos.  Tebowmania has already shook New York.  What does this mean for a franchise looking to make good on their Head Coach's prediction of a Super Bowl championship in his four seasons?  In 2012, I see a whole lot of trouble for the New York Jets.

I waited to write this article for three days for a reason.  I needed to ask myself a bunch of questions, and it took time to come up with good answers.  After a couple of days, I realized it was just one question: Does Mark Sanchez have the ability to win a Super Bowl in this league?  The answer I came up with, would surprise many of my Jets fan friends.  The answer I came up with was yes.  Let's take a look at another New York quarterback who was mediocre at best in his first full three seasons.  There are many similarities between Eli Manning (2005-07) and Mark Sanchez in their first three seasons.  They both relied on heavy running games.  They both boasted good defenses, as evidenced by their season records, and playoff appearances.  They both struggled mightily in the throwing game.  Both quarterbacks hovered around 20 interceptions on the year, never having a QB rating over 80, yet there were games you could see the potential to break out and become a very good, if not great, quarterback in a pass heavy league.  Eli Manning has broken through and delivered two Super Bowls in 8 seasons.  Two very unpredictable Super Bowls, but two nonetheless.  Both quarterbacks have proven that they can win on the road in pressure situations.  Eli Manning has beaten Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau in the playoffs.  He's also gone to Dallas, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco to notch wins in the postseason.  Mark Sanchez has gone into Cincinnati, San Diego, Indianapolis, and New England to win 4 tough playoff games, three of which most people would say were against elite quarterbacks in Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady.  So Sanchez has shown he can win, and win in a hostile, pressurized, and almost impossible situation.  Were there other factors in these wins? Absolutely, but you cannot discount a rookie or sophomore quarterback going into New England or San Diego or Indianapolis and pulling off an upset that turned the playoffs upside down.  Mark Sanchez is a victim of his surroundings, just like Eli Manning was in 2007 before he brought home the Lombardi trophy.  New York is an unforgiving sports town.  Mark Sanchez and the Jets succeeded too much in too little time, and the expectations of Jets fans soared.  Sanchez overachieved in his rookie and sophomore campaigns, and regressed a bit in his third full year.  In my opinion, the jury is still out. 

Mike Tannenbaum bringing in Tim Tebow is just another impossible situation for Mark Sanchez.  It's not fair to him.  Here's a quarterback who leads the Jets in all time playoff wins.  He's led them to 2 AFC Championship games, and in comes competition for the starting job.  Mike Tannenbaum can say that Mark Sanchez is his starting quarterback all he wants, but can you honestly tell yourself that the first interception Mark Sanchez throws in MetLife Stadium will not be met with boos and chants of Tebow, Tebow, Tebow?  I'm not saying it's a definite, but it is a strong possibility.  While Tim Tebow will most definitely run a fantastic Wild Cat offense, fans just cannot get enough of him.  Organizations can only ignore their fan base so much and for so long, where they will feel the pressure to insert Tebow in the starting job if Sanchez does not succeed.  Mark Sanchez has showed he can thrive in pressure situations in the biggest moments, so here's another to add on to the heap.  I hope he does overcome this obstacle.  I hope he retains his job as starting quarterback.  He is the Jets best hope of winning a Super Bowl.  Tim Tebow has the heart of a champion, but he doesn't have the skills.  Sanchez has the skills.  If you go with talent, you go with Sanchez.  I hope Jets fans realize that.

Giants-49ers: A Rivalry Renewed

The Giants travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in the 8th postseason game between theses two teams today at 6:30 pm.  The 49ers hold the postseason series advantage 4-3, with their last victory coming in the 2003 classic wild card round in San Francisco.  While I still remember the day, these Giants won't because none of them played in the game, so it isn't a revenge game as some of the fans will have you believe.  Back in the 80's and 90's, it was the Giants who had the great defense to the 49ers tremendous offense.  This time around the switch is flipped, and it will be a whole different ball game.  The Giants lost the last time they visited Candlestick Park in week 10.  But, they have never lost a NFC Championship game, at home or on the road (4-0).  Let's take a look at each position/group for both of these teams.

Quarterback

Alex Smith has played well all year.  I find it strange that I actually just typed those words.  Who would have thought that Alex Smith could have resurrected his career like this?  His QB rating was 90.7, which was good for 9th in the NFL.  Now, he only attempted about 27 passes per game, but in 445 attempts, Smith has turned the ball over just 10 times, including fumbles.  That is great protection of the ball.  Smith only averaged 197 yards per game, but with the 49ers running game and defense, he just needed to limit his mistakes.  He did more than that versus the Saints last week.  He out dueled Drew Brees and their number 2 offense to win a surprising shootout 36-32.  Smith was mobile in the pocket, didn't turn the ball over, and was deadly in his hookups with Vernon Davis.  In 5 attempts of over 20 yards to Davis, Smith was 5 for 5 with 2 touchdowns.  That can create a bit of a match up problem for the Giants.  


Eli Manning has bailed the Giants out of tough spots all year for the Giants.  Versus the Patriots, versus the Cardinals, versus the Cowboys, and came very close in the final seconds versus the 49ers in week 10.  Manning has had his most consistent season of his career in 2011, and it has carried into the playoffs.  In the postseason, Manning has a 68% completion percentage, averaging 303 yards per game, and has thrown for 6 touchdowns against 1 interception.  Most importantly, is there anyone you'd rather have leading your team in the 4th quarter than Eli Manning this season?  

Edge: 

Running Game

The San Francisco 49ers have lived on the run this year.  In the regular season the 49ers rushed for 128 yards per game, which was 8th in the league.  Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have combined to rush for nearly 1,700 yards this season along with 8 touchdowns.  Where this team suffers in the run game is in the red zone.  They have settled far too often for field goals, when they should be punching their ticket for 6 points.  Last week, San Fran averaged 6.5 yards per rush against the Saints on just 22 attempts which totaled 143 yards.  Their running game should be important on a wet and sloppy field later today.  

The Giants had trouble rushing the ball last week versus the Packers, after what looked like a rejuvenated rushing attack in the previous four weeks.  Give Kevin Gilibride credit.  He sticks with the running game.  The Giants attempted 27 rushes last week, for a total of 95 yards, which was only a gain of 3.5 yards per carry.  Bradshaw and Jacobs each had a long rush at the end of the game to get those numbers where they are.  New York needs to run the ball a little better today if they are to leave San Fran representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Edge: 

Receiving Corps

The 49ers aren't deep at this position by any stretch.  Their best wide out is Michael Crabtree who had 874 yards and 4 touchdowns in the regular season.  Their biggest threat in the passing game has to be Vernon Davis.  He is a nightmare match up with these Giants linebackers.  Last week Davis scorched the Saints for 180 yards on 7 catches with 2 touchdowns.  After Davis and Crabtree, it's a motley crew of Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn, Jr.  

This is the most talented part of the Giants team.  The Giants wide receivers are not fun to cover.  Cruz and Nicks are proving to be the best 1-2 punch in any receiving corps in the league since Fitzgerald and Boldin were with the Cardinals.  Both receivers had 1,100+ yard seasons, with 16 touchdowns between them.  Cruz looks like Manning's favorite third down target, a distinction former pro bowler Steve Smith used to hold.  Both Nicks and Cruz can burn defenses for the long play, and it seems like it happens week in and week out for this team.  If both of these receivers command double coverage later today, look for Manningham, who is a stellar 3rd option, to have a productive game.  

Edge:

 Offensive Line

The 49ers have a decent offensive line, depending on what kind of team you are.  If you are a running team, which is what the 49ers are, then they have a very good offensive line.  They helped Gore and Hunter to the 8th best rushing attack in the league.  In pass protection, they fail.  By a lot.  Alex Smith was sacked 44 times this season.  That is the most in the NFL.  If the 49ers try to pass the ball often, like they did last week versus the Saints, they can be in a world of trouble.  Last time these two teams played Osi Umenyiora was not healthy, and Justin Tuck was nursing his own injuries.  Now that they are at full strength, or at least pretty close to, it is not a good match up for the 49ers.  

The Giants protect the quarterback just as good as any offensive line in the NFL.  Where this group had trouble this season was run blocking.  Against the Jets, the Cowboys, and the Falcons, it looked as if those problems had faded away, and the Giants rushing attack was back.  Last week against the Packers, those problems came rushing (pun intended) back.  Each run was constantly 1 yard, 2 yards, three at the most, until late in the game when they broke a couple of long ones.  If what all the experts are saying is true about this field later today, the offensive line needs to block better so the running game can take off.  

Edge:

Secondary

Before I start on the just the secondary, let me just say that this entire defense is ridiculously good.  Now that's out of the way......The 49ers "No-name" secondary is pedestrian in allowing yards.  They are ranked 16th in the NFL, which is exactly in the middle.  Where they excel is taking the ball away.  The Sand Fran secondary recorded 22 interceptions this season, which was second most in the NFL by any secondary (GB was 1st).  The 9ers give up a few yards in the air, but they can make you pay with the threat of a turnover, as they showed Drew Brees last week (2 INTs).  Drew Brees did shred this secondary last week for 462 yards and 4 TDs, which is more than the Giants have allowed in two games.

The Giants, in the regular season, were one of the worst passing defenses in the league (29th).  They too can take the ball away at a moments notice.  The Giants secondary recorded 18 interceptions in the regular season, and one last week, a nifty dive and catch by Deon Grant.  In the postseason, however the Giants have turned it around.  New York held Matt Ryan to 199 yards and no scores and Aaron Rodgers to 264 yards two scores with a pick.  Antrel Rolle is the fiery leader of this secondary, and he has backed up his recent talk with his superb play in recent weeks. 

Edge: 

 

Linebackers

Last week, I called the Packers linebackers the best in the playoffs.  I admit, I spoke way too fast, forgetting that the 49ers not only have the best linebackers in the playoffs, but arguably in the entire game.  NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are both top 10 linebackers in the league, and I daresay that Willis is the best.  In Willis' 13 games this season, he has racked up 97 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, and 1 interception.  NaVorro Bowman has recorded 111 solo tackes, and 143 combined!  this guy just hustles after the guy with the ball.  These two guys must be scary to look at from the other side of the ball.

The Giants linebackers, once again, played well last week.  They shut down Tony Gonzalez two weeks ago, and last week, Jermichael Finley was held in check.  Michael Boley, in my opinion, was the defensive co-player of the game with 9 tackles, 2 sacks, and a pass defended.  Chase Blackburn recovered a fumble and nearly scored, but in his own words is just "too slow".  The news gets better for the Giants, as Mark Herzlich is listed as probable. The Giants are above average at linebacker.  They need to focus on containing Smith in the pocket, and locking down Vernon Davis, where they will probably get help from a safety. 

Edge:

 

Defensive Line

For a 3-4 base defense, which is not usually known for its pass rush, the 49ers have an excellent one.  Aldon Smith led this team in sacks with 14.  Smith lines up as a pass rushing linebacker, same as Elvis Dumerville and DeMarcus Ware.  Smith is quick and has great hands.  Justin Smith has 7.5 sacks as defensive end, and Ahmad Brooks has added 7 at OLB.  I'm pushing Aldon Smith as a defensive lineman, even tohugh he is listed as a linebacker.  Where this line really is effective is in their run stuff.  The 49ers were 1st overall in run defense, and it starts up the middle with Sopoaga.

The Giants have the best pass rush in the game when healthy.  They were third in the league with 48 sacks.  When Umenyiora, Tuck, Pierre-Paul, and Canty are all on the same line, you better duck and cover.  Umenyiora adds an extra punch to this line with his ability to swipe at the ball when the quarterback is ready to throw.  New york has been good against the run in recent weeks as well.  While the Packers did run for 147 yards last week, 66 of those yards were from Aaron Rodgers who ran on busted plays.  When the Giants are getting pressure, a mobile quarterback can scramble for some pretty big gains, and that is this defensive line's weakness.  

Edge:

Keys to the Game

The 49ers need to stick with what got them this far.  Run the ball, and play great defense.  While Alex Smith has played well this season, and great last week, do not try and do too much.  Harbaugh has gotten this team to the NFC Championship with toughness.  Play hard every down, and try to disrupt Eli Manning.  Don't let the Giants hang around.  Take the points when you can get them.  The Giants are 3-3 this postseason on stopping their opponent on fourth down.  Don't chance it.  San Fran has the better special teams.  In the return game, the kicking game, and the punting game.  Utilize them as best you can.

Exploit your match ups.  The Giants can get after Alex Smith.  That is the one biggest mismatch in this game.  The Giants D-Line versus the 49ers O-Line.  Don't overload the box like you did in week 10.  Alex Smith can make some passes, and if their isn't help underneath, the 49ers can get a few big plays.  Win the field position battle.  San Fran has the best punter in the game, so if the Giants need to punt, they have to pin the 9ers deep.  The Giants have the coaching advantage.  Couglin has been here before, and the road doesn't scare the Giants.

Last week, I thought the Packers would beat the Giants, even though my heart said Giants.  I went with my heart and picked the Giants.  This week, my heart and head say the same thing:

Giants 27 49ers 17

Giants are Rolle-ing Mini Post

Antrel Rolle believes the Giants cannot be denied their 4th Lombardi trophy.  It's great that this is how the Giants are feeling, but there is a pretty solid team in San Francisco who will have a lot to say about that come Sunday.  The Giants dominated both sides of the ball against the Packers this past Sunday.  They capitalized on the Packers mistakes early and often, and limited their own to just one harmless Eli Manning interception.  The Giants held the best offense in the league to just 20 points in their own digs.  And the defense played better than that, considering the only two touchdown drives that the Packers had were elongated by highly questionable calls by the zebras.  I'm pretty sure we won't see that crew officiating any more in these playoffs.  Eli and Hakeem Nicks are getting the spotlight, but the defense overshadowed the offense in my opinion.  While the Giants did a pretty good job of stuffing the run against the running backs, a highly mobile quarterback proved to be troublesome with the Giants linebackers.  The pass rush was absent for most of the first half, but reared its ugly head on the first possession of the second half just when Rodgers and company looked like they were starting to click.  Osi Umenyiora strip sacked Aaron Rodgers in Giants territory to halt the Packers from pulling within striking distance of the Giants.  Granted, the Giants did absolutely nothing with the possession that followed the strip, but to stop Rodgers in his tracks was the most important play of the game.  That was the defensive turning point of the game.  The Giants secondary played great in coverage, even when they gave up first downs.  They limited this talented and speedy receiving corps, by not giving up the big play, which the Packers rely so heavily on.  What can I say about Eli Manning?  He is tied with the most road playoff wins, and can take full ownership of that record on Sunday.  He might not be the most talented guy on the field, but he sure is the coolest.  He isn't the fastest, but his footwork in the pocket is superb.  He isn't the flashiest, but he sure has a flair for the dramatic as evident by his 37-yard Hail Mary touchdown heave to Nicks at the end of the first half.  His numbers say top ten, but his demeanor says "Move over Peyton".  If you say clutch, I say Eli.  If you say 4th quarter, I say Eli.  If you say road warrior, I say Eli and the Giants.  What better way to end the NFC playoffs with two of the most storied franchises in its history?  And this match up is just one rematch in a long line of historical playoff showdowns between these two teams.  This will mark the 8th post season game these two teams have played against each other.  The home team has won each of those games.  The last time these teams faced each other in the playoffs was 2003, and it was a historical one.  The 49ers came back from 24 points down and survived a questionable non-call for pass interference to beat the Giants in the NFC Wild Card Round.  These teams have met only once for a Championship game, with the Giants as the victors.  The 49ers haven't been to the Championship game in 15 years.  The Giants are undefeated in the the Championship game in the Super Bowl era.  What stat will win out?

Reason to bELIeve

The New York Football Giants have given us all reason to doubt that they are legitimate contenders for the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season.  Let's go back to opening day where Rex Grossman shredded the Giants secondary for 305 yards and 2 TDs for an opening day loss.  Eli Manning didn't quite back up his preseason statement of being a top 5 quarterback in this league either, as he threw for 268 yards and an interception.  The Giants have a penchant for losing to teams that they should beat, and winning games against teams that they should lose to.  They've beaten Philadelphia, New England, and Dallas twice.  They also lost to the Redskins (twice), Seahawks, and then to a depleted, Vince Young-led Philadelphia Eagles squad.  The Giants will drive you absolutely nuts with last minute wins (see Arizona, New England).  Then the Giants will make you lose faith (see New Orleans).  And at last the Giants will have you believing (see Green Bay even though they lost).  Why are the Giants so inconsistent?  The talent is there.  We see it every game in a still underrated quarterback in Eli Manning, in a speedy and high octane receiver in Victor Cruz, in a young, freakishly athletic defensive end in Jason Pierre-Paul.  The Giants will drive you nuts, but they are an exciting team to watch.  Did anyone expect the Giants to go out last Sunday and have the defense pitch a shutout against a very talented offensive team?  Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, and rookie Julio Jones should add up to mucho points.  But when this Giants team plays the way they are capable of, they are a good defense.  When the pass rush is getting pressure all game, the secondary performs better, even the linebackers perform better.  When this last place rushing attack is getting holes from their just-now gelling offensive line, and Brandon Jacobs is finally hitting the corners, it is still a potent rushing attack.  When it looks like Mario Manningham is finally showing up this season, the Giants can boast a passing attack as good as any other in the league.  The Giants, in their storied history, have never had a better offense than they do today.  The Giants have their best quarterback of all time, with probably their two best receivers of all time, and finally have the best defensive front four in the game.  With a healthy Osi Umenyiora, a rejuvenated Justin Tuck, and All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul, no one in the league can generate more havoc on the quarterback than these Giants.  Yet, there is still reason to worry.  The Giants will face one of the best offenses in the history of the league.  The Packers had an extra week to rest, and get healthy.  So let's look at the teams from each position/group.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is by most accounts your NFL MVP.  I would argue that Drew Brees had the better season, but I'm not going to sugar coat it.  Aaron Rodgers is probably the best at what he does.  Over 4,600 yards thrown for, 45 TDs, and only 6 interceptions.  Now that's a season we don't see every year.  Don't forget that he is one of the more dangerous quarterbacks in the league with his feet as well.  Rodgers will look to throw first, but don't sleep on the scrambler.

Eli Manning has had is best season since coming into the league this year.  4th in the league with 4,933 yards thrown for, 29 TDs, 16 interceptions, and the 7th best QB rating in the league.  He is a SB MVP, he's not afraid of the big game, and he has a 4th quarter magic aura about him.  In a record breaking season for quarterbacks throughout the league, Eli has broken one important record this year.  He now holds the record for TDs thrown in the 4th quarter, with 15.

 Edge:

Running Game

Ryan Grant and James Starks have had equal touches for about the same yardage.  The Packers as a team are 27th in the league with about 97 rush yds per game.  The Packers are pass oriented, and run as an afterthought kind of team.  The Giants stuffed Michael Turner pretty well in the Wild Card round, so look for the Packers to throw even more.

Brandon Jacobs looked like the Jacobs of '08 last week against the Falcons.  I can't remember seeing Jacobs turn the corner as much as he did on Sunday.  If Jacobs can continue to run well outside, and downhill the Giants can slow down the game and control the clock.  Bradshaw is equally important here.  Jacobs to bash early and Bradshaw to burn later.  This doesn't look like the worst rushing team in the NFL the past few weeks.  

Edge: 

Receiving Corps

The Packers have arguably the games best wide receiving corps in the game.  With the triple threat of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and sprinkles of James Jones and Donald Driver, Green Bay has it all.  Nelson had a career year with 68 catches, 1,263 yards, and 15 touchdowns.  He has been one of the best receivers in the game since the start of last season's playoffs.  A healthy Greg Jennings will give the Pack their 1-2 punch back that they have missed since he was injured against the Raiders in the second week of December.

The Giants are one of two teams in the NFL (Steelers) to boast two wide outs with 1,000+ yard seasons.  The second year sensation, Victor Cruz, has made the Giants one of the elite passing attacks in the league.  Add Cruz to the third year pro Hakeem Nicks, and the tandem has combined for 154 catches, 2,728 yards, and 16 TDs.  The Giants love big plays as Cruz and Nicks have made everyone aware.  Cruz had 5 60+ yard catches this season, including an NFL record tying 99 yard touchdown catch and run, mostly run.  Add in Mario Manningham who looks to have woken up, and this is arguably one of the best receiving corps in the league.

Edge: Even


Offensive Line 

The Packers offensive line is average, at best.  They don't make many big holes for the running game, and Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 39 times, which is tied for 6th most in the NFL.  While the run blocking isn't a very important piece for the Packers game plan, pass protection sure is.  For a line that allowed their quarterback to be sacked 39 times in 15 games and going up against one of the more formidable defensive lines in the game, this could prove to be the most important part of the Packers success. 

The Giants struggled early in the season in their pass protection, but midway through the year they found their stride.  They struggled even more in run blocking for most of the year, but in the last 5 weeks, have blocked well enough to have 4-100 yard rushing games.  They have allowed Eli to be sacked 28 times, and that is the 5th least out of any quarterback to start each game this season.  

Edge:

Secondary 

The Packers have the worst statistical secondary in the league which is strange.  The reason this is strange is because they have one of the best cornerbacks in the league.  Charles Woodson is still a force to be reckoned with, even at the ripe age of 35.  Woodson had 7 interceptions on the year.  The Packers concede a lot of yards.  Not just in their secondary, but their entire defense.  The best part of this secondary, is that they are opportunistic.  Make a mistake, and they will capitalize on it.  They are of a ball hog mentality, which at times can hurt them.  Going after the ball will make you prone to the big play, which the Giants can kill you on.  The last game this secondary played, they had just given up 520 yards through the air. 

The Giants secondary is statistically better than the Packers, but the best defensive back in this game will be suiting up for the Pack.  While they are better than the Packers, statistically, it isn't by much.  The Giants have given up lots of yards all season, but in the last 4 games, they have held the opposing quarterback to under 300 yards twice, and under 200 yards twice.  The secondary is clicking at just the right time. The Giants held Matt Ryan to 199 yards and a measly 4.9 yards per pass.

Edge:

Linebackers

The Packers biggest strength on defense is the play by their linebackers. Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, and Clay Matthews form the best linebacker corps left in this years playoffs.  Bishop leads the Packers in tackles with 115 and these three players account for 12.5 of the 28 sacks that the defense has garnered all season.  Matthews has six sacks to go along with three interceptions, while Bishop had 5 sacks and Hawk racked up 1.5.  Clay Matthews is all over the field, and you have to love his hustle, but Bishop has been the Packers best linebacker all year.

Some thought that this would be the weakest part of the Giants defense this year, but this group has played pretty well considering the season ending injury to Jonathan Goff in preseason.  Rookie Jacquian Williams has played well, even tough he has begun splitting time with Chase Blackburn, who has returned to play very well with the Giants.  Michael Boley has been their best linebacker and it has showed in the last two weeks with huge stops on 4th and 1's against the Cowboys and the Falcons.  Mathias Kiwanuka has played extremely well this year.  He has garnered 84 tackles, 3.5 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.  The weakest part of this group is their coverage skills.  Jermichael Finley can prove to be a problem for these linebackers.

Edge:

Defensive Line

The Packers front four is nothing to write home about, although they do one thing pretty well.  When it comes to stuffing the run, the Packers are 14th in the league, allowing 111 yards per game.  Again, it's nothing special, but it's average.  If the Packers are going to win this game, they will need to stop the up and coming Giants offensive line and running game.  If the Packers control the line of scrimmage, they can dictate the tempo of the game.  And they want this to be a shootout.  Getting after the quarterback is not what the Packers specialize in, in fact they are 27th in the league.  They live and die on the turnover.  

The Giants defensive front is arguably the best in the game, especially in recent weeks.  Since Osi Umenyiora has returned, the Giants have been revitalized in getting after the quarterback.  The Giants were ranked third in the league with 48 sacks.  Jason Pierre-Paul, in his breakout All-Pro season, racked up 16.5 sacks, Umenyiora has added 9 in his shortened season, Tuck has had 5 in his injury plagued year, while backup Dave Tollefson has even contributed 5, and that's just at defensive end.  

Edge:

 Keys to the Game

The Packers need their offensive line to stop the Giants pass rush and let Aaron Rodgers win this game.  Rodgers won't turn the ball over, and he can extend plays with his legs.  The secondary needs to be patient.  They cannot be too aggressive with receivers such as Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.  Last week the Falcons put their safety help on Cruz, and Nicks burned them for 115 yards and 2 scores.  This week Nicks needs the attention of Woodson and a safety.  

The Giants best shot at this game is not to play shootout with Aaron Rodgers and company.  Control the clock, control the game.  Slow this game down with the run game.  If the Giants can dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, it can be a long day for the Packers.  Have Blackburn/Williams/Boley spy Rodgers.  Not all of the time of course, but at least 25% of the time.  Capitalize on red zone possessions.  Field goals will not win this game.  The Giants need to punch it in when they have the chance. 

After looking over these categories, you'd think the Giants would have the better team and record, but that is not case.  Aaron Rodgers is the biggest X-factor for Sunday's Divisional Round match up.  My head tells me Packers 31- 28, but my heart says Giants 34- 31.  I'm going with my heart.  I can't pick against the Giants.  If momentum counts for anything, my heart will prove to be right.

Giants 34 Packers 31

Wild Card Weekend Part 1

The time has come for my favorite part of the year.  The NFL Playoffs are here, and I for one am excited.  There are six teams in the playoffs this year that did not make the dance last season, which happens every year.  The Giants, the Lions, the 49ers, the Texans, the Bengals, and the Broncos have all missed the playoffs in the last three years, some teams more than that.  The beauty of the NFL is that there will always, every season, be surprise teams that come out of nowhere to take their division or earn a wild card spot.  This year it was done by smoke and mirrors (Denver), high flying passing attacks (Detroit, New York), great defense (San Francisco, Cincinnati),  and an injury to Peyton Manning (Houston).  No excuses though.  Every team that is in, deserves to be in.  So what should we look for this weekend, you ask?  Let's see......

Two rookie quarterbacks face off in the first game of the 2012 playoffs, and the Houston Texans get their first ever playoff game at home versus a smash mouth football team, the Cincinnati Bengals.  Andy Dalton has been a revelation this year, and the Bengals are set up for not only today, but for the future as well.  Trading away Carson Palmer was the best thing that Mike Brown could have ever done for this organization. Not only has Brown done a fantastic job trading away Palmer, but letting Jonathan Joseph leave and go to the Texans has not hurt this secondary as many people thought it would have.  The signing of 11 year veteran, Nate Clements, has proven invaluable this season as he has led the the secondary as the 9th best passing defense in the league.  Drafting AJ Green in the first round and Andy Dalton in the second, it is hard to argue that many other teams had a more meaningful draft in such a short period of time.  So key free agent moves and great drafting by Brown and the Bengals have this young core of Bengals poised to make runs at the NFC North for years to come. 

The Bengals boast a good defense, but not as good as Wade Phillips' Texans.  One year ago the Texans were giving up the most passing yards in the league.  This year, Phillips has installed the 3-4 base defense and it has paid off huge dividends.  They are the 3rd ranked passing defense and the 4th ranked rushing defense.  No wonder Wade always gets chances as a head coach.  This guy really knows how to coach a defense, and all of this without their best defender, Mario Williams.  They have the second ranked defense in the league behind only the Pittsburg Steelers.  To go along with that smash mouth defense is their smash mouth running game, which is ranked second, but I will call it the best in the game.  Arian Foster and Ben Tate have run roughshod over the league all year.  The weakest spot of this team is at quarterback, and it's a shame.  If Matt Schaub didn't get injured, this could have been a legitimate Super Bowl favorite.  They are so deep into their depth chart at quarterback, they had to sign washed up Jake Delhomme.  To make matters worse, their third string rookie, TJ Yates, is banged up. 

The Pick:

Cincinnati +3 over HOUSTON, and Cincy wins. Love their defense, and not crazy about TJ Yates.  Or Jake Delhomme.

The Lions have made the playoffs for the first time in 11 years.  Wow.  Congratulations to Jim Schwartz and his young team, but my condolences on having to face the best offense in the history of professional football in the opening round.  The Lions have a good offense too, but the Saints are just machines.  Drew Brees is now the record book when it comes to single season passing records.  How many weapons can you give a guy like Drew Brees? One of the premier tight ends in football, Jimmy Graham, standout wide receiver, Marques Colston, the speedy lightning rod, Darren Sproles, and serviceable 4th options such as Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem.  That all adds up to the best passing attack in the league, which is coupled by the 6th best rushing attack in the league.  What was a 4-headed rushing attack has been reduced to 3 due to Mark Ingram's injury, but Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Chris Ivory will give you enough fits without him.  The Saints are 8-0 at home and have scored under 31 points at home just once this season.

Matt Stafford is my comeback player of the year.  Last week he threw for 520 yards and 5 touchdowns, and it wasn't enough to win the ball game.  that's the biggest problem with the Detroit Lions.  Their pass defense is one of the most porous in the league.  They are ranked 22nd in the league, and they made Matt Flynn look like Dan Marino.  If the Lions are going to have any chance in this game, they will need to rattle Drew Brees, which will prove very difficult.  Brees has a very capable offensive line, as he has only been sacked 24 times this year which is 1.5 times per game.  the Lions need to get pressure and keep it close until the 4th quarter where Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson have put on exhibitions this year.  The problem, is that so has Drew Brees and company. 

The Pick:

Detroit +11.5 over NEW ORLEANS.  New Orleans definitely wins the game.  Both defenses are shaky at best.  I like Stafford to keep it close.