The first ten days of baseball has been a bit surprising. The Boston Red Sox, the odds on favorite to win the World Series, have started off 1-7. Carl Crawford is the subject of the biggest lineup maneuvers since Joe Torre's shuffling of A-Rod in the 2007 playoffs. The red hot Rangers, after losing Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, have started of on an MLB best 8-1 tear. The Orioles are the best team in the American League since Buck Showalter has taken the reins in August of 2010. Manny Ramirez has retired after his 2nd run-in with PED's. Not that the 1-8 Rays will suffer. In the National League, the defending World Champion Giants stumbled a bit out of the gate, and are in the cellar at 4-5. Matt Holliday went 3/4 with a HR and three RBI on opening day, then missed 7 games due to an appendectomy. The 3-6 Cardinals, and Albert Pujols have missed his protection. Joey Votto and the Reds have picked up right where they left off last regular season. The Rockies have had a perennially great offense, but they also can brag about one of the best pitching staffs in the Majors so far this year. And how about those Big Four in Philly? Only Halladay and Oswalt have been impressive, but something tells me that the other two will catch on soon enough. All these stories are retreads. This is why I love the month of April. All 30 teams believe they have what it takes to get to the fall classic. And if last season had any effect on the baseball fan whatsoever, then we really never know what will happen. If anyone can state for a fact that the Arizona Diamondbacks will not win the World Series, please let me be the first to tell them to quiet down. They have all the makings of a young contender. So do the Brewers, the A's, the Orioles, and the Marlins. My money is not on them, however. If I had to pick four teams who were most likely to win the whole thing, they would be:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
What's not to love about this team. They got the starting pitching in droves. 3 legitimate aces, and one on the cusp (Hamels), should he ever put two consecutive solid years together. They have the hitting. Ryan Howard is their big bopper, but their most important hitter is Rollins. He goes, and the whole team follows. Victorino can fly, and he can hit. If Utley gets healthy, and Ibanez can delay his aging for a year, this is one good offensive team.
What scares me about the Phillies is their bullpen. Their starting pitching can only mask the bullpen for so long. You cannot expect even Roy Halladay to go out there every five days or so and throw 8 innings. There are some days where your starter will only give you about six innings, and the Phillies bullpen is just not good enough with the likes of Ryan Madson, Jose Contreras, and J.C. Romero. And even when Brad Lidge does return, does anyone really have any faith in him?
2. Boston Red Sox
When I started writing this article, Boston was in 1-7 funk. I look at the team, even at 6 games under, and the pieces are still there. Starting pitching: Who wouldn't take this rotation is a heartbeat? Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Bucholz, Josh Beckett, and Dice-K? I'd sign up for it right now. Who wouldn't take this lineup? 1. Carl Crawford 2. Dustin Pedroia 3. Adrian Gonzalez 4. Kevin Youkilis 5. David Ortiz 6. JD Drew 7. Jason Varitek/Jarred Sattalmachia 8. Marco Scutaro 9. Jacoby Ellsbury. Sounds pretty good to me.
What worries me about the Red Sox is the same thing that worries me about the Phillies. Their bullpen. There is just something about Jonathan Papelbon that bothers me this year. He doesn't seem like the same pitcher he was two years ago. Part of me believes that either Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks will have this closer job in the middle of the summer, and that could make the Red Sox better.
3. New York Yankees
Best offense in the Majors. Bar none. Even with Boston's offseason acquisitions. The have speed with Gardner and Granderson. They have pop in A-Rod and Teixeira. They have, in my opinion, the 2nd best pure hitter in the game, with Robinson Cano. 2nd only to Albert Pujols. They have leadership in Jeter and Posada. And even Swisher and Martin will contribute in this star studded lineup. Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez have got to be some of the best bench players in the majors. Top to bottom, the Yankees are the most dangerous lineup in baseball. They also boast the best back end of any bullpen in the League. Who can compete with Chamberlain, Soriano, and Rivera? No one.
What worries me about the Bombers, is their starting pitching. Sure Sabathia will earn anywhere from 17-21 wins. But everyone else in that rotation is a huge question mark. And that is why Brian Cashman loaded up on 3rd tier, washed up pitching this season. Bartolo Colon, Mark Prior, Freddy Garcia, and now Carlos Silva all have signed to at least a minor league deal. What will we get from AJ Burnett, coming off his worst professional year ever? What will we get from Ivan Nova, in his first full season? Can Phil Hughes repeat last year's first half of the season? The Yankees will be lucky to get good performances out of two of these pitchers.
4. Atlanta Braves
Is there a pattern here? Yes. All four teams hail from the East Division. I absolutely love the Atlanta Braves this year. Old Brave Chipper Jones, meet new Brave Freddy Freeman. Both can have a huge impact for the Braves this year. Dan Uggla should have the biggest, however. In his first full year as an Atlanta Brave, I see a 40 home run year for the second baseman. Martin Prado, All-Star Utility man extraordinaire, should have another great season as well. Throw in Brian McCann, sophomore Jason Heyward, and a rebounding Nate McClouth, and this is one potent lineup. Their rotation is a mixture of experience and talent. With Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, the veteran presence in their starting rotation is priceless. With the talent that Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy bring to the table, anything is possible for this team.
What worries me about the Braves is injuries. Can Chipper Jones, Nate McClouth and Jason Heyward all stay healthy? If you lose one, no big deal, you have a serviceable Eric Hinske to plug in. But what would happen if you lost two, or all? That could spell doom for this team. Also, Craig Kimbrel is a first year closer. So far, so good. But one bad week, can spell doom for this bullpen. Some scouts believe that Craig Kimbrel is the next big closer in the game, but I've heard of teams vamping up their new guy like this before. Jay Payton and Armando Benitez first come to mind.
Also can Contend:
Texas Rangers: Still have that powerful offense, but the pitching might catch up to them this year.
San Francisco Giants: Have the pitching, but lack something offensively.
Colorado Rockies: Always seem to fall behind early and play the catch up game.
Baltimore Orioles: I am NOT jumping on the bandwagon. If you check my AL East article written over a month ago, you will see I clearly stated that they could contend.
Cincinnati Reds: Definitely have the offense, but their starting pitching and bullpen may not be good enough.
Chicago White Sox: So good offensively, and I like their top three starters, but their bullpen is lacking. Can Matt Thornton be as dominant a closer as he was setup man?
Play Ball!
