Friday, October 29, 2010

Alderson Announced as New GM for Mets: Long Road Ahead

 The Mets didn't waste time finding a replacement for Omar Minaya.  COO, Jeff Wilpon introduced the new GM today to the press.  "Sandy has the intelligence, leadership and creativity to reinvigorate this franchise and implement a structure and system that will produce a winning and contending team for the long term," Wilpon said in a statement. "His success and vast experience are unmatched, uniquely qualifying him to lead our baseball department."  The last few general managers of the Mets have been hired with similar introductory remarks, but Sandy Alderson may just be the man to do the job that Minaya, Steve Phillips, and Jim Duquette could not.

Sandy's Resume

Sandy Alderson has had a very successful career.  Although he did not have a baseball background before becoming the Oakland Athletics general counsel in 1981, he was very quickly promoted to general manager in 1983.  There, he enjoyed much success, winning 4 division championships, three pennants, and a world series in 14 years.  In 1995, Walter A. Haas, Jr who owned the Athletics at the time, passed away, and when the team was taken over by Stephen Schott and Ken Hoffman, Alderson started concentrating on sabermetrics, when the team's payroll was being reduced.  In 1997, Alderson stepped down, paving the way for new GM, Billy Beane.  From 1998 until 2005, he worked in the front office of MLB.  In '05 he stepped down to become the CEO of the San Diego Padres, while also teaching business at Berkeley.  He resigned as CEO in 2009 and has been working with MLB to address the corruption in the Dominican Republic regarding a number of issues, including lying on birth certificates and steroids.

The Road Ahead
  
His first task is a big one: To find a new manager to lead the Mets back to the postseason for the first time since 2006.  He intimated that he wants a manger with some personality, but also one that follows the stats, which doesn't tell us very much.  Many Mets fans are clamoring for the return of the very popular Bobby Valentine, but that is unrealistic.  Valentine wouldn't be my first choice to manage the Mets.  If I were Sandy Alderson, there are two very different types of managers that I would take a look at:

1. Successful, older manager:  As any team in transition, you start from the top down.  And you want your new manager to reflect your team.  For example, when Nolan Ryan hired Ron Washington as a rookie coach, Texas became a very dangerous team on the base paths.  Washington preached this to his team because that was what he was like as a player.  Washington fit in Texas because it was a young team, and he grew with the Rangers.  But the Mets are a very different team, if they are not going to restructure.  So if they don't here is what they should do:
The Mets, as a team, have a lot of talent.  Their best player, hands down, has to be David Wright.  But, aside from Wright, the Mets have good talent at shortstop, in the outfield, with a legitimate ace on the mound, and two decent starters behind him.  The kind of manager that a club like this needs is a Lou Pinella/Joe Torre type.  An older manager with a lot of experience under his belt to help guide a team with some decent talent, to just supervise, but also maximize that talent.  Jerry Manuel was not that guy, but a Lou Pinella or a Joe Torre, if you can dissuade him from retirement, are very much those guys.  Both have different styles of course, and if you believe what Sandy Alderson says, he would probably lean towards Pinella.

2. Rookie Manager, Young Retread.  The Mets should only hire a rookie manager, or even a young retread if they decide to rebuild.  Being objective, I think that the Mets should not restructure their Major League team.  Their farm system is a different story, and Sandy Alderson, seeing first hand the talent in the Dominican Republic and other areas should be able to do a good job in that area.  But, in the event the Mets do start a rebuilding project, then a rookie manager would be perfect for this club.  Who that candidate would be, I haven't the slightest idea, but the Mets will probably start the search in the next two weeks. 
A young retread is more interesting.  I think that Tony Pena, 53, is itching to get another shot at becoming a manager, and I think he would be good for the Mets.  He was a cathcer, and they always seem to make the best managers.  He won AL Manager of the year in 2003, when he managed the Royals to their first winning season in a decade.  Clint Hurdle, 53, who is a coach for the Rangers is also an interesting option.  He both played and managed in the Mets organization.  He spent time with the New York Mets in 1983, and 1985.  He managed in their farm system from 1988-1993.  He later joined the Rockies organization becoming a hitting coach, and eventually replaced Buddy Bell as manager in 2002.  He led Colorado to the World Series in 2007, where they were swept by the Boston Red Sox, and was fired in 2009 after a very slow start.  He is currently the hitting coach for the Texas Rangers.

Whether you believe this was the right person to do the job for the Mets doesn't matter.  He has the reins now, and he has a long road ahead of him, with even a longer list of question marks.  Those questions range from: Who is the next manager?  What should become of Oliver Perez?  Do I rebuild this team?  And with every new question, there are ten more in it's wake.  For now, Mets fans just sit and and wait.
Pitchers and catchers: February 13.  Can't wait.   

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

NFL: Power Rankings Week 7

This is my first crack at the NFL Power Rankings.  This is not set in stone, so please be easy on me!  Just the rankings and a quick one or two sentence synopsis.

Cream of the Crop
1. Pittsburgh Steelers(5-1): The NFL's best all round team.  They do it on offense, they do it on defense.  Got a little help with a good call/explanation of goal line fumble on their winning drive
2. New York Jets(5-1): Tied for the best record in football.  Can Mark Sanchez keep up his strong sophomore performance?  
3. Indianapolis Colts(4-2): Coming off a bye and still without Austin Collie and Donald Brown, Peyton Manning still doesn't miss a beat.  Loss of All-Pro TE Dallas Clark will hurt, but how much?
4. New England Patriots(5-1): Tied for the best record in football.  Young defense is starting to gel.  Branch and Brady still a  deadly combo after a few years apart.
5. Baltimore Ravens(5-2): Squeaked out a win against a horrible Buffalo Bills team.  Flacco is looking more and more like a top 10 QB.
6. Atlanta Falcons(5-2): Escaped a furious comeback from the Bengals late in the game.  Who should we thank? Roddy White.
7. New York Giants(5-2): Don't be fooled by the final score of Monday's game at Dallas.  The Giants dominated the Cowboys on both sides of the ball.  Eliminate the mistakes, and they could be the NFC's best.
8. Tennessee Titans(5-2): Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the game.  It helps to have Chris Johnson on your side too.
9.  Houston Texans(4-2): The most explosive offense in the NFL.  Can they have caught the Colts at a more opportune time?
10. Kansas City Chiefs(4-2): A team led by a great defense, with Dwayne Bowe and the tandem of Charles and Jones leading the always improving offense.  Best in the West.

Best of the Rest

11. Green Bay Packers(4-3): Young on both sides of the ball, this team needs to cut down its mistakes.  They should be running away with this division, but trail Chicago, and Minnesota is still in it.
12. Philadelphia Eagles(4-3): Disappointing loss to the Titans, considering they were up all game.  Defense let them down in the fourth quarter.  Who should lead this team at QB?
13. New Orleans Saints(4-3): Embarrassing loss to the Browns, who have no running game, no quarterback, and no WR threat.  4 Brees INT's spelled doom for the Saints.
14. Washington Redskins(4-3): Shanahan has this team on the right track, but probably won't make the cut this year.  Offense is streaky.  DeAngelo Hall is laughing at Al Davis this week. 
15.Miami Dolphins(3-3): No home victories this season.  Played tough against the #1 ranked team, Steelers.  Less Wildcat this year, which says that trickery is not needed anymore for Henne to succeed.
16. Seattle Seahawks(4-2): Probably the best team in the NFC West, which isn't saying much.  Seattle seems to settle to often for field goals.  Mare kicked five of them Sunday.
17. San Diego Chargers(2-5): Probably the biggest stretch at 17.  Find new ways to lose every week, but the talent is there.  Someone tell Goodman that we play until the whistle blows in the NFL.
18. Chicago Bears(4-2): The real Jay Cutler showed up on Sunday against the Redskins.  Is it still an honor to be working with Cutler, Mike Martz?
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers(4-2): Is Raheem Morris serious?  Sunday, he claimed that the Bucs were the best team in the NFC.  They're a nice story, but c'mon Raheem.
20. Minnesota Vikings(2-4): Can Brett Favre put his ego aside and let Tavaris Jackson start, so this team can start winning?  Probably not.

Mediocrity and Messes

21. St. Louis Rams(3-4): Surprising young team on the upside.  Steve Spagnuolo has got this team playing well, but they're not quite ready.  Stephen Jackson is hurting, and they might be able to rest him against the hapless Panthers.
22. Oakland Raiders(3-4): Raiders explode for 59 points in Denver behind Darren McFadden and effective Jason Campbell.  But, honestly this team isn't going anywhere.  
23. Arizona Cardinals(3-3): Should be begging Kurt Warner to come out of retirement.  Brutal play by QB's will lead to an early offseason.
24. Cincinnati Bengals(2-4): As undisciplined as they come.  A 400 yard passing day by Carson Palmer couldn't overcome a late fumble by Benson that essentially gave Atlanta the game back.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars(3-4): Bad quarterbacks galore.  Still might be able to upset Dallas this week, as the Cowboys have a worse QB situation, with Romo out.
26. Dallas Cowboys(1-5): Can't catch a break.  Tony Romo will miss at least 6 weeks, maybe more.  Season is over in Big D, and 2011 can't come sooner for fans, who are hoping for a coaching change.
27. Cleveland Browns(2-5): Great defense? Or just bad week for Brees. Probably the latter.  The Browns have beaten the last three Super Bowl champs.  Strange.
28. Denver Broncos(2-5): The Broncos shut out the Raiders last week.  In the 4th quarter.
29. Detroit Lions(1-5): One of these days, the Lions are going to win a game on the road.
30. San Francisco 49ers(1-6): Mike Singletary thinks the 49ers still have a shot at the playoffs.  It sounds crazy, but the NFC West is so bad, he may have a point.  A notorious team for starting slow in recent years, the 49ers may rattle off 8 or 9 straight wins. Probably not though.
31. Carolina Panthers(1-5): Booked a W this week.  Still a terrible team with a good coach.  Sorry Fox, you're probably on the unemployment line at the end of this year, along with 10% of America.
32. Buffalo Bills(0-6): Scared the hell out of the Ravens this week.  Nice play from Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the Bills are still looking for win number 1.

This Week:

Most Interesting Game: AFC South MNF Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

If You're a Betting Man: New England and the over

Upset Special: Detroit Lions over the Washington Redskins

Monday, October 25, 2010

Giants Can End Cowboys' Season

Monday Night Football- NFC East Edition.  

Normally the first New York vs. Dallas game of the year is a big to do.  Nothing changes this year.  With a win, the Giants can do two things.  First off, they can claim sole possession of first place in the NFC East, and the NFC in general.  Secondly, they can most likely put the Cowboys to bed for the season, with Wade Phillips most likely on the way out at the end of the season.  On the other hand, with a Cowboys win, many different things can start happening.  Firstly, the Cowboys would see this win as finally starting their season.  At 2-4, no one can absolutely say that your season is over.  At 1-5, you're in the same league as the Panthers, Lions, and the underachieving 49ers(All teams that have a 99.9% chance of missing the playoffs).  Secondly, it gives Wade Phillips some breathing room.  He can coach a little better without the black cloud over his head.  Lastly, if they do get a win tonight over the Giants, it might propel this team in it's last 10 games, none of which are certainties.  After the Giants, Dallas plays (in order): vs JAC, @GB, @NYG, vs. DET, vs. NO, @IND, vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ARI, @PHI.  Now I'm not saying that the Cowboys will lose all these games, but even if they do beat the Giants tonight, the road ahead is not a cakewalk.  They would have to go at least 7-3 to have any chance at the playoffs, maybe even 8-2.  Can you find 8 guaranteed wins in that remaining schedule?  No?  That's because there aren't.  There aren't even 3.  So, Dallas needs to get back on track tonight.

The Matchups

Giants Offense vs. Dallas Defense

Contradictory to Dallas' record, the defense has played fairly well.  They give up an average of 22.2 points per game, 20th in the NFL, but many of those points come off bad turnovers deep in their own territory.  They give up on average 281.4 yards per game, 3rd in the NFL.  That is the real telling statistic.  Can the Dallas Defense stop the resurgent Giants rush attack behind a shifty and speedy Amhad Bradshaw?  This fan thinks not.  The Giants offensive line has played reasonably well.  Bradshaw simply makes his own plays, however.  The yards Bradshaw gains after the first hit is what is impressive.  399 of Bradshaw's 582 yards have come after contact.  Rich Seubert and Chris Snee are invaluable, no matter how many plays Bradshaw does make.  Besides the Indianapolis game, this offensive line has gelled, and the Giants are back to a running game that has been a New York football staple.  After finishing a pedestrian 17th in rushing in 2009, the Giants entered this weekend as the 5th ranked rushing team.  Bradshaw's quickness, coupled with the strong offensive line could spell doom for the Cowboys defense, which gives up on average 100.8 yards per game.

Eli Manning and his receivers have played well this season.  The Giants young receiving corp can burn you with the best of them, but need to hold on to the ball.  There are way too many dropped passes, many of them off the hands and in to the defender's waiting hands.  Nicks, while explosive is one of the main culprits.  With great footwork and speed, he needs to refine his game in the area of dropped passes to become an elite WR.  Smith is a great route runner, and Boss might have the best hands on the team.  Manningham is another threat down field, as he showed last week vs. the Lions when Nicks was shut down.  The Cowboys have two interceptions for the year, and the Giants may be able to expose a middle of the road secondary.  Dallas defense has only allowed 180 yards through the air, but part of me thinks it's because of the pass rush, which the Giants offensive line can limit.  The Cowboys pass rush has 12 sacks for they year, which is nothing to write home about, but DeMarcus Ware has 7 of them.  Look for Ware to be doubled all night.

Cowboys Offense vs. Giants Defense

The Cowboys have the 3rd best pass attack in the league and, yardage wise, the 3rd ranked total offense in the NFL, but are only 1-4.  Why? would be most fan's question.  And the answer is simple.  While racking up all those yards in five games, the Cowboys seem to turn the ball over in the worst situations, and have only averaged about 20 points per game.  On top of that, they are the 3rd most penalized team behind the Lions and Raiders.  Their rush attack has been ineffective at best, mainly because they don't commit to a good ground game.  Marion Barber is not the bruising back he has been in past seasons.  Barber and Felix Jones have almost a 50/50 split of touches, with Jones averaging a decent 4.5 yards per carry, and Barber averaging a less than mediocre 3.4.  The Giants run defense is ranked 7th in the league allowing only 92 yards per game, and getting better every week. 

Tony Romo is having a very good season statistically.  He has already thrown for over 1500 yards in five games with 10 touchdowns for a QB rating north of 92.  Miles Austin already has three 100 yard receiving games, and Roy Williams has 5 touchdowns.  Jason Witten has taken a back seat to these two receivers but is still playing at a reasonably high level with 270 yards receiving and a TD.  How much damage can this QB and receiving corp do on a team?  If they can cut out all the unforced errors, and stupid penalties, they can put up monster numbers on the score board and not just the stat sheet.  But this week, they are facing the 2nd ranked pass defense in the Giants.  The Giants only allow 172 yards through the air per game.  Again, this has a lot to do with their pass rush, but with exceptional play from Terrrel Thomas, Corey Webster, Antrell Rolle, Kenny Phillips, and Deon Grant, the Giants secondary is looking as good as it ever has.  The pass rush led by Umenyiora and Tuck, have amassed 21 sacks through six games, 8 coming from Umenyiora, who is 2nd in the NFL in that category.  He also has forced 7 fumbles, as the Giants on a whole have forced 13.  The Boys' O-line will have their hands full with a ball hungry Front 7.

Difference Makers

Giants Defense- Jonathan Goff's strong play in the absence of Keith Bullock has helped the Giants weak spot on defense, their linebacker corp.  Goff flies to the ball like a rookie trying to make a good impression, and most people are noticing.

Cowboys Defense- Bradie James quietly leads this team in tackles at LB.  He flies to the ball, and the Cowboys need him to be on his game tonight with Bradshaw in the backfield. 

Giants Offense- Rich Seubert/Chris Snee-  Seubert and Snee have played very well since that game in Indianapolis, opening up holes for Bradsahw and Brandon Jacobs.  They need to handle DeMarcus Ware and the so far quiet Jay Ratliff.

Cowboys Offense- Miles Austin/Roy Williams/Dez Bryant/Jason Witten-  The Cowboys talented receivers, including their tight end, are going to be hard to cover.  The problem is that you can't double cover everyone.  The receivers need to run their routes correctly and hold the ball.

Keys to the Game

Giants- Pass rush all day.  If the Giants can rattle Tony Romo, it could knock Dallas out of this game early.  Force some turnovers and capitalize in the red zone.

Cowboys- Load the box against the rush.  If you let the Giants control the clock, then they control the game, although Dallas has proved that theory wrong all year.

Prediction

Giants 27 Cowboys 21

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Biggest Surprise of the Week?

What is the biggest surprise of the week?  The Rangers beating the Yankees in 6 games?  The Giants beating the Phillies in 6 games?  The #1 ranked team in college football is upset for a third staright week?  Other opinions?  Leave your remarks, and start the debates!

This fan's Choice: The fact that the idle Boise State Broncos can be in position to play for the national championship is exciting the hell out of me.  And the means for that was Oklahoma being upset by a good Missouri Tigers team.  Will Boise State finally get that #2 ranking that they deserve?  We'll see tomorrow.

Friday, October 22, 2010

New York Stock Exchange

This will be a continuing theme for New York Sports.  The popular Buy or Sell argument seen on television, heard on radio, and read in print.  I will analyze two New York Sports teams.  This week, it's football.

The New York Jets

The Jets are heading into their bye week tied for 1st in the AFC at 5-1.  Are they the best team in the AFC East?  And if so, are they the class of the AFC?  Let's break it down.

The Jets have gotten above average quarterback play from Sophomore Mark Sanchez.  While relying on a heavy rush attack, Sanchez has managed the game like a veteran QB, not like a second year player.  Through six games, Sanchez is only averaging 183 yards a game, but has only turned the ball over three times, throwing two picks and fumbling once.  He's also thrown 9 touchdown passes, five going to emerging Pro Bowler in Dustin Keller.  The Jets rely on their run game, however.  LaDainian Tomlinson is experiencing a rebirth in New York after two injury plagued seasons in San Diego.  Tomlinson has rushed for 490 yards through six games at 5.3 yards a pop.  He has 5 carries for 20 yards or more, already eclipsing his total for 2009, while scoring 5 touchdowns, which also puts him on target to surpass last year's total.  At the beginning of this season, I predicted Tomlinson would take over as the starter for Greene, and it looks like he will at least be splitting carries for the rest of the season.  Greene hasn't been as effective as predicted rushing for 323 yards at 4.5 yards per carry and a touchdown, but it's because he hasn't gotten as many touches as predicted through the first six games.  The defense has been touch and go with the Jets.  They're playing a lot of bend, don't break defense, which, up to this point, has worked.  They are definitely the team to beat in the East, but to call them the class of the AFC, is doing so a little early. 

This fan's opinion:  Buy cautiously.  The Jets have played very well through the first six games, but the road does get a little tougher going ahead.  Next week they play a Green Bay Packer team who has not played up to snuff.  This young team might want to prove something against the Jets.  The remainder of the schedule will see some cakewalks, but also games that look like easy W's, but they are against teams no one should overlook.  The Dolphins, who you can never discard easily, the Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Bengals, and even a Lions team that shouldn't be cast off as a sure win.  So buy, but buyer beware. 

The New York Giants

The Giants finally start their divisional schedule.  60% of the Giants remaining games are against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins.  At 4-2 overall and 0-0 in the division, they are in tie for first place with the tiebreaker, since the Eagles lost to the Redskins and the Giants have yet to play anyone in the East.  Is this the team that got blown out by the Colts or are they the dominating defense that pounded the undefeated Bears and upstart Texans? 

The Giants are very much a Jekyll and Hyde team.  In the first three weeks, they dominated the lowly Panthers, got blown out by the Colts, and beat themselves against the Titans.  Then, in week 4 they clobbered Jay Cutler en route to a 17-3 win over the Bears.  The following week against the surprising Texans, they had a good showing on both sides of the ball for the first time all year, beating the Houston 34-10.  In week 6, they came back home to beat the Lions 28-20.  So which team is it? The team that beats itself?  Or the team that can control a game on both sides of the ball?  Let's break it down.

Amhad Bradshaw is looking like a back that doesn't need an offensive line.  Even short yardage gains, look and see where Bradshaw first gets hit, and then where he winds up with ball.  He's a dynamic, fast back, with a lot of potential.  The only negative I can think of is that he needs to hold on to the ball.  Rule #1 in Coughlin's coaching manual.  Don't turnover the ball.  Eli Manning is growing into a top 10 QB.  He's completing more passes, throwing for more yards, and keeping his mistakes to a minimum.  Now if the receivers could only help him out.  5 of Manning's 8 picks have been off receivers' hands, and that's inexcusable.  I'm a firm believer in, "If the ball hit's your hands, the ball should be caught."  The Giants defense, after getting torched for 38 points by Indy, and 29 by Tennessee, has played extremely well against the Bears, who, in this fan's opinion, are still just a facade.  They only allowed three points, and that's only because of a turnover.  They also shut down a high flying offense in Houston, and allowed 20 points to the best offense in the NFC......The Lions?  Yes, statistically, the Lions are the best offensive team in NFC.  So where does this leave the Giants stock?

This fan's opinion: Buy.  In a weak NFC, the Giants are actually in the conversation as one of the best teams in the conference.  While they have a tough schedule ahead barring records, they have a decent shot at winning this division, and making a deep run in the playoffs.  At the beginning of the season, I said that the Giants could make the playoffs, although it would be a tough going.  A lot of things had to go right for the Giants, and they are.  Osi is playing like it's 2007-8, the secondary is healthy, and surprise Jonathan Goff is filling in nicely at MLB for Bullock, and might just win the starting job.  So buy, but again, buyer beware.

This fan's lock of the week:  Baltimore Ravens

This fan's upset of the week:  Miami Dolphins

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Uphill Battle for Yanks

ALCS- Rangers lead Series 3-1

It does not look good for the New York Yankees, although it's not entirely unheard of for a team to come back from a 3-1 deficit.  Sabathia will take the mound still looking for a quality start this postseason against the Rangers' CJ Wilson, who was impressive in his LCS debut, getting a no decision thanks to his bullpen.  The Yankees pitching on a whole definitely needs to be better, with the starters, aside from Pettite in game 3, being ineffective.  The bullpen, while impressive in Game 1, has been hindered by David Robertson, Sergio Mitre, and one bad showing by Boone Logan who was taken deep by the white hot Josh Hamilton.  The Yankees need not just a good performance from their ace, but a dominating gem from Sabathia to turn this thing around.  And can someone else other than Robinson Cano hit the ball?  Robinson Cano hit another home run on Tuesday night, his third in the series, albeit maybe an aided one.  Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera (now injured), and Nick Swisher have been AWOL this series, letting the bulk of the work fall to the All Star second baseman.  The Yankees are supposed to have the best offense in all of baseball, but haven't put up more than three runs in a game since the opener.  The Rangers, on the other hand, have done nothing but hit, with 7 guys hitting at or better than .294.  As a team they are hitting at a .307 clip.  What's more they are getting the pitching from their starters and, except for Game 1, their bullpen.  At the beginning of the postseason, I opined that the good teams do two things.  They pitch better in late innings, and they hit your pitching in later innings.  The Rangers are doing both, and by the looks of things, they are almost a lock to upset the Yankees and make their first ever appearance in the World Series.

Game 4 Recap
AJ Burnett was tapped to start Game 4, and was rolling along through 5 innings only allowing two runs, when he got into a little trouble in the 6th.  With a man on as the tying run, Joe Girardi signaled from the bench to intentionally walk David Murphy so Burnett could pitch to Molina instead, who blasted a 3-Run home run to left field.  Can someone please tell me why Girardi would signal for an intentional walk to Murphy.  I know he's having a good series, but since when did Murphy become a prolific hitter that AJ Burnett is incapable of retiring?  With Burnett's mental stability questionable on the mound, Girardi basically told him that he doesn't trust him to face a guy like Murphy, a perennial All-Star (wink, wink).  Josh Hamilton is having the series everyone dreams of.  He's hitting .333 with 4 homers, 7 RBI, 5 walks, and 3 stolen bases.  He's hitting starters, relievers, lefties, and righties.  No one can get this guy out.

Game 5 Keys to Success for the Yankees:
Sabathia needs to go at least 8 innings strong.  This bullpen cannot be trusted right now, so Sabathia needs to regain his true form, and pitch like the season is on the line.  Because now the season really is on the line.  A-Rod and Swisher need to step up, and share the load with Robbie Cano.  Cano, who is on fire, is hitting .467 with 3 home runs and 4 RBI.  Rodriguez and Swisher combined are hitting .100 with no homers and 2 RBI.  If anyone were getting on base for Cano, the outcomes of these games might be a little different.  Now with Teixiera likely out for the remainder of the postseason, it is more important for these guys to start contributing. 

Game 5 keys to Success for the Rangers:
Don't change a thing.  That simple.  Ron Washington has done an unbelievable job with this team.  He has taken them from pretender every year, to an on the cusp Championship team.  They've always been able to hit in Arlington, but now they pitch.  3 of the 4 starters that have pitched in this series have given the Rangers an opportunity to win, and although Tommy Hunter was less than stellar, Derek Holland came in and gave them 3 2/3 solid innings of relief for the win.  The Rangers run better than any team remaining in the playoffs, and with the way they've been hitting and pitching, it makes them a very scary team to face in the World Series.

Prediction for Game 5:
CC sends it back to Texas and passes the torch to Phil Hughes to keep this series going.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Is Calling on AJ the Right Move?

AJ Burnett has been the picture of inconsistency and frustration this year for the Yankees starting rotation, so many fans wonder if calling on AJ Burnett in Game 4 is the right decision in a pivotal point in this series.  This fan breaks it down.

The Pros
Well, it can't get much worse.  Through the first three games, the Yankees have had one slightly bad start by CC Sabathia, one very bad start from Phil Hughes, and a very strong outing by Andy Pettite, coming away with a victory in only Sabathia's stint.  Two Yankee hurlers, who racked up 39 wins total in the regular season, were both less than dazzling in their respective starts.  Sabathia, who is in contention for the AL Cy Young, was pretty bad throwing 4 innings, and giving up 5 runs on 6 hits while walking 4.  Hughes, in his first full year as a starter, was absolutely shelled.  Hughes also only lasted 4 innings yielding 7 runs on 10 hits, walking 3.  While Andy Pettite was solid, he was no match for the younger southpaw, Cliff Lee.  Pettite tossed 7 innings of 2 run, 5 hit ball.  His only mistake was to Josh Hamilton in the first inning who teed off for his 2nd homer of the series, giving Lee the only support he would need.  Lee once again dominated the Yankees.  Lee pitched a gem of a game going for 8 innings while allowing no runs, 2 hits, and striking out 13.  Can Burnett turn this series around in favor of the Yankees?  If Burnett is on, that curveball mixed in with a plus fastball is a devastating combination.  He can fool a hitter with the best of the best in this league.  Can.  Not will, but can.  Burnett is plenty rested, and he should also be well prepared to face this Rangers lineup.

The Cons
Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi seem to think AJ can turn this around, but as an avid Yankees fan, trusting Burnett is a difficult thing to ask of me.  Burnett put up his worst year ever statistically.  For a guy with great stuff, he's always been around a .500 pitcher, and you can blame that on his control.  While he's always near the top of the league in wild pitches, this year, he actually led the entire league.  Burnett, in this fan's opinion, is also a pitcher with a weak psyche.  He needs to have the backup catcher as his battery mate, which is selfish, and only hurts the team offensively.  He needs to blame the catcher instead of himself for the mistakes he makes in the game.  Newsflash AJ: Jorge Posada has caught two perfect games and has 4 championships.  Maybe it's not him.  It seems when something goes wrong in an inning, whether it be an error, or a bad call, AJ compounds on that to make it a big inning for the offense he's pitching against. 

Keys to Success
#1- Strike One.  Strike one is absolutely the biggest key to success for AJ Burnett.  He needs to get into a rhythm early.  If he starts to walk batters early, it's going to be a long night for the Yankees. 
#2- Don't rattle.  I know that sound like more of a command than a thing to work on, and that's because it is.  Burnett must stay focused on the mound.  But more than that, he needs to stay alert to anyone on the base paths.  He is very bad at holding runners on, and that can spell doom for the Yankees. 
#3- Minimize damage.  When you get a tough break, like a bad call on a pitch, or a fielding mistake, just move on.  AJ has a habit of letting these things take over an inning, and it cannot happen in this game, which just might be the biggest game of his career. 

Prediction
I hope and think that AJ Burnett has taken his demotion seriously, and to the heart.  More importantly, I think that he feels he has something to prove.  I think Burnett will have a strong game, something the Yankees need tomorrow night, against a guy who is not Cliff Lee, so they might actually score.  The Yankees need to win the next two, and take this ALCS back to Texas, and it all starts with AJ.  So tomorrow night, look for AJ to finally harness his fastball and curveball for 7 innings, because if he doesn't, it's likely that it will end their season. 
Yankees win 5-3 on a strong outing by Burnett. 

Monday Morning Quarterbacking the NFC East

The Eagles roll over Ryan and the Falcons 31-17.  Jeremy Maclin filled in nicely for an injured DeSean Jackson, who started the game, but was knocked out (literally) by a crushing hit from Dunta Robinson, who was also injured on the hit.  Jackson, who was described as severely concussed started the game fast and furious, rushing for 44 yards and a TD, and catching one pass for 34 yards and a TD.  Maclin filled in for Jackson catching all 7 passes thrown his way for 159 yards and 2 TDs.  Kolb looked like a pro-bowler was 23/29 for 326 yards, 3 scores, and 1 INT, for a 133.6 QB rating.  The Falcons fell behind 21-0 in the early goings, and even though they outscored the Eagles 17-10 from late 2nd quarter, their comeback fell short as Matt Ryan lost a fumble and threw a pick. 
What the Eagles need to work on- The Eagles looked great for the most part, but if you're looking for something to be negative about, it has to be their kicker, Akers, who is normally very reliable, but was only 1/4 in FG opportunities.
What the Falcons need to work on- They didn't dominate in any facet of this game.  Ryan had an average game, as did Turner, but their defense gave up to many big plays.  The defense needs to work on defending against the "home run" plays.

The Giants looked average against a bad team, beating the Lions 28-20.  The Lions, while much improved, are still a bad team.  Coming into this game, the Lions were actually ranked as the #1 offensive team in the NFC.  The Giants did a great job of stuffing the run.  Jahvid Best rushed 12 times for only 16 yards.  On the other hand, the Giants couldn't defend the pass all that well.  Lion quarterbacks were 28/49 for 302 yards and two scores and an INT.  The Giants sacked the QB only twice, but did knock out starter Shaun Hill.  Offensively the Giants were mediocre in the passing game with Eli completing 20 of 30 passes for 177 yards and two scores with no picks.  Amhad Bradshaw is becoming one of the best running backs in the NFC.  He rushed 19 times for 133 yards and no scores.  Jacobs took care of the scoring, rushing 9 times for 35 yards with two TDs. 
What the Lions need to work on- The offensive line didn't play well at all.  They gave up two sacks, giving up a fumble.  The run game suffered because the Giants penetration was too much on run plays.  They need to create bigger holes, and protect their quarterback better.
What the Giants need to work on-  Special teams.  Matt Dodge fumbled another punt for no reason that I can see, setting up the Lions for their first score in Giants territory.  Coverage team needs to be re-hauled again.  3 kickoffs returned by the Lions went for 104 yards. The Giants will get exposed playing a good team when they give up good field position.

The Cowboys are easily the most disappointing team in football.  They lost another close game yesterday afternoon in Minnesota, 24-21.  The Cowboys played sloppily yet again.  They won in almost every facet of this game from time of possession to total yards, but turned the ball over twice, were penalized 11 times for 91 yards, and gave up a 95 yard kick return for a TD.  That is not the recipe for success.  They limited Brett Favre to 118 yards and a score, and Adrian Peterson to 73 yards on 24 carries and a TD.  Romo threw for 220 yards, three TDs, but threw two costly INTs.  Both turnovers led to points for Minnesota and that was the difference in the game. 
What the Cowboys need to work on-  The defense is playing well for the Cowboys, but the offense keeps shooting itself in the foot.  They cannot turn the ball over twice deep in their own territory, and they can't be penalized 11 times for 91 yards.  Just keep out of your own way, and good things will happen.  With the talent on this team, it must be very aggravating for the Cowboys to be at the bottom of the division.  Is it too late for the Cowboys?
What Minnesota needs to work on- The Favre to Moss connection.  With a week of practicing under their belt, I thought that this hookup would prove to be deadly vs Dallas. 

The Redskins fought hard, but came up short against the Colts, losing 27-24.  Peyton Manning threw for 307 yards and two TDs with a fumble lost.  McNabb wasn't as good throwing for 246 yards, one TD, and two INTs.  Before getting injured, Addai was having a very productive game, rushing for 128 yards on 17 carries with a TD.  Washington got a nice effort from Ryan Torrain, who rushed for 100 yards on 20 carries, but McNabb's mistakes proved to much.  One interception led to 7 points for the Colts, while the other was a nice grab that ended the game.  This game though was a game in which the Colts made some mistakes in the form of three fumbles lost, but still wound up winning.  The Colts are still a top tier team in this league, so the Redskins can take some positive things from this game. 
 What the Colts can work on-  Hold on to the ball.  While they won this game on nice balanced attack, but Addai or Manning can't put the ball on the carpet.  Special teamer, Kenny Moore fumbled twice, losing it once.  He needs to be torn into or replaced.
What the Redskins need to work on-  They played pretty well except for the two big turnovers.  McNabb is a good quarterback, who will bounce back from this one.  They're 1 game behind the the Giants and Eagles, but if they can end up in a tie, they have the tiebreaker for now.

Friday, October 15, 2010

Freak, Doc Poised for Game 1 Showdown

The San Francisco Giants and the reigning NL Cy Young travel to Philadelphia to kick off the NLCS on Saturday night.  The Giants, who arguably have the best pitching staff left in this playoffs, will try their luck against the 2 time defending National League Champions.  The Phillies, who have an AL lineup with a shutdown big three in the rotation, are heavily favored to win this series and advance to their third straight World Series.  But this fan thinks that the SF Giants have more than a puncher's chance in this match up.

While the Phillies can throw up three pitchers better than the Giants, it's not by much.  The Giants led the entire National League this year in ERA.  Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain all have opportunities to win their respective games.  Game 1 will be the indicator for the series, as are most games 1, but especially this one.  If Tim Lincecum can pitch like he did in his only start against the Braves in the NLDS, he will almost certainly come out on top.  Two problems though.  One:  Roy Halladay is just as likely to continue his dominance.  Two:  The Braves lineup is no where near as talented as this vaunted veteran offense that the Phils have put together.  The Giants need to get to the Achilles Heel of this team.  And in this fan's opinion, that weakness is Philadelphia's bullpen, which has gone largely untested this postseason.  While Brad Lidge was lights out from August on, he still struggles with his alter ego.  You know the one.  Where he melts down every now and again, and can't get anyone out even if you walk up to the plate with a stick ball bat.  Ryan Madson has been a reliable setup man, but he aslo has some baggage in the later innings. 

The Phillies formula is not to deviate.  Get 8 innings from your starter, and run production out of the middle of the order, because you don't want brad Lidge near a big game, even if he was lights out at the end of the season.  Get Jimmy Rollins going, because their offense runs off his spark.  Rollins was hurt this year, but he has to start hitting sometime in the near future.  He batted just .091 in the ALDS for the Phillies.  As a matter of fact, get that whole lineup going.  Chase Utley looks like he's the only star in this "star" studded line up, and he's only 3 for 11 in these playoffs although he has 4 RBI with a home run. 

The Giants formula should be very simple.  Pitch like you have all season, but be more patient at the plate.  Work the counts, and get that pitch count up.  Easier said than done when you're facing guys like Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels, I know.  But, if the Giants want a shot at the World Series, they're going to have to beat Philadelphia's bullpen.  While the Phillies have the best offense in the National League, the Giants have the best pitching staff.  When you talk about starters, the Phillies have the edge, but when discussing entire staffs, the Giants have to get the nod.  Brian Wilson led the NL in saves with 48, pitching to 1.81 ERA.

Mid and late season additions for the Giants have paid huge dividends, in the form of former Marlin, Cody Ross, Aubrey Huff, and homegrown future star, Buster Posey.  While struggling for much of the 2010 season, Ross has put up some nice numbers in the postseason.  He is 4 for 14 with a home run and three RBI.  Huff had 4 hits in 15 AB's with an RBI, and Posey has has been quite the player for San Francisco batting .375 with 3 runs scored and a stolen base in the ALDS.  Can they overcome their inexperience to upset the Phillies?  We'll just have to wait and find out, but if you're reading this you want to know what I think, right? So......

Game 1 should be a classic pitcher's duel.  Actually, series could be one big pitcher's duel.  I like the Giants pitching in this series, but the Phillies can match it with their rotation, and the offense, if it starts to click, put's them over the top....

The Pick: Phillies in 7

 

Thursday, October 14, 2010

CC, CJ to Open ALCS

Almost a week after securing their spot in the ALCS, the Yankees finally get to take the field again competitively for the first time since their 6-1 clincher vs the Twins.  CC Sabathia goes for the Yanks, looking to improve upon his mediocre showing in Game 1 of the ALDS, a game in which he labored through 6 innings of work, throwing 111 piches and giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits.  While CC wasn't terrible, he was not the ace he has been for most of the regular season.  And it does not get any easier against the stacked Rangers lineup.  Both Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler come off big performances, while Texas' two most potent boppers, Hamilton and Guerrero have been quiet.  That should not be the Yanks only problems though.  Everyone in Texas' lineup is capable of stealing a base; even Bengie Molina who stole a base in the clinching game for Texas.  That could prove problematic for the Yankees catcher.  Jorge Posada had his worst statistical year ever behind the plate.  Only 13 of 85 runners were caught stealing for an embarrassing 15.3% caught stealing.  The key for the Yankees and their pitching staff/catcher has to be to keep the Rangers off the base paths this series.  The Rangers score enough runs with their daunting offense, they don't need help with an aging and slow catcher behind the plate.  Besides that, if CC can control his fastball a little better this time out, the Yankees should set the tone early in this game. 

CJ Wilson has been a revelation for Nolan Ryan and his new philosophy in Texas.  All those NYY fans that endured the Joba Rules last year and the "Phil-osophies" this year, take a long look at what Nolan Ryan has done with his bullpen arm turned starter.  After pitching in 74 games and 73 2/3 IP in 2009, Wilson was asked to become a starter, and he not only accepted, he flourished.  Wilson started 33 games this year, pitching 204 innings, 3 complete games, and all to a nice tune of a 3.35 ERA.  The lefty had no innings limit imposed on him and he completed a whole season.  Take a look MLB.  Why can't a guy climb over the all feared pitch count either?  That's Nolan Ryan's next step.  Wilson is being handed the ball for Game 1 against one of the front runners for the AL Cy Young.  Can he compete with the former Cy, and stake Texas to a 1-0 lead in the club's first ALCS in its history?   Well we'll see tomorrow night if CJ Wilson is up to the task he has been handed.

The Yankees haven't had one big star this postseason, but a collective effort by all to carry them past the Twins into the ALCS.  The biggest producers in their series sweep were their DH's Lance berkman and Marcus Thames, and their center fielder Curtis Granderson, who stayed hot after coming on late in the season.  A-Rod, who put up great numbers in last year's ALDS and ALCS, is still looking to get hot in this postseason.  The Rangers on the other hand, have received poor play by their All Star center fielder, but MVPesque play by their second baseman Ian Kinsler.  In a League stacked with great young second baseman, Kinsler often gets overlooked.  But his bat is just as good as any when healthy.  In 144 games last year, Kinsler belted 31 home runs and drove in 86.  Nelson Cruz is another over looked star in Texas for the same reason as Ian Kinsler.  If Cruz can ever stay healthy for a whole season, he could be an All Star.  The question in this series though, will Young, Hamilton, and Guerrero start to hit?

As I have posted in earlier articles, the series will come down to the bullpens, and the Yankees have the experience and the talent to get it done.  Although Neftali Feliz had a Rookie of the Year caliber season, he couldn't hold the Rays off in Game 3 of the ALDS surrendering a home run to Carl Crawford in 1/3 of an inning.  In 12 2/3 innings, the Rangers bullpen allowed 6 runs for about a 4.40 ERA.  All those runs came in one game, but it just shows that the Rangers can allow a bunch of runs whether it be from Nippert, Oliver, or Feliz.  In 7 innings, the Yankees bullpen allowed just one run.  Kerry Wood and David Robertson are pitching better than Darren Oliver and Dustin Nippert right now as the better setup men, and Neftali Feliz is no comparison to Mariano Rivera in experience or results. 

The Fan's Pick:

Yanks in 6

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

NFL Lack of Leaders

If anyone was looking for an encore of last season's presence of dominating forces in the NFL, well you must be disappointed.  From this fan's view, the lack of a true power in the NFL has led to a slew of great games, huge surprises, and a lot of lost bets.

Last season's two Super Bowl competitors stumbled in the first 5 games of the year.  The Colts (3-2) and the Saints (3-2) are both in third place in their respective divisions, meanwhile surprises like the Chiefs (3-1), and the Redskins (3-2) both have either a share or an outright claim to first place in their divisions.  Is this the beginning of the end for lopsided competition in the NFL, or merely an aberration?  Last year, both the Colts and Saints made deep runs into the season as undefeated teams; however, this year both teams have accrued two losses while not even a third of the way through the season.  This how my Playoff Picks started this year (from 1st to 6th):

AFC
Colts
Chargers
Jets
Ravens
Patriots
Bengals

NFC
Saints
Packers
Cowboys
49ers
Giants
Falcons

Can anyone tell me that they feel absolutely confident about 50% of these picks?  I picked the 49ers, yes.  I'm sure it was a popular pick this year, but now I find myself saying, "What the hell was I thinking?"  I was so high on their defense this year, that in my fantasy league, I drafted them before the Vikings, who were still on the board.  That pick might have been a stretch, I admit, but winless?  Come on now.  The Chargers are 2-3.  Come on Norv, you make Charger fans beg for Martyball.  How does a team with as much talent as the Chargers lose to the hapless Raiders?  Yes I know the Chargers were on the road, but 3 losses is far too many for the Chargers this early in the season.  The Cowboys are by far the biggest disappointment so far this season.  Sitting at 1-3, 1.5 games behind the rest of the division, is not where anyone expected this team to be.  Many experts and analysts considered them favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year, and while they haven't been awful, they surely haven't flexed any of their muscles.  Teams will start to double and triple Miles Austin, who already has three 100-yard receiving games already in this young season.  It will only get harder for Romo and Austin to hook up.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons, Bears, and Chiefs have all excelled and have claim to the top spot in each of their divisions; however, do these teams have staying power, or will they fade into the mediocrity that is NFL right now?  This fan believes one team has a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, another has a decent shot at the playoffs, while one will fade.

The Fade-  The Bears are smoke and mirrors.  The Bears have gotten lucky- With scheduling, with sloppy play, and with Jay Cutler.  In week 1 of regular season play, the Bears squeezed out a win on a horrible rule/call, whatever you believe.  Calvin Johnson made a spectacular touchdown catch for the Lions that should have won them the game, but the last second touchdown was disallowed and the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win against the lowly Lions.  Then they beat the Cowboys, who are just beating themselves right now, in week 2.  Week 3 was an ugly showing by, in this fan's opinion, a real contender in the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers made too many mental mistakes with 18 penalties, and only lost by 3 points.  In week 4, the Bears were exposed when they played a pumped up Giants defense who barely allowed a 100 yards and three points, while knocking Cutler and backup Collins out of the game.  With 9 sacks in the 1st half alone, the Giants played inspired D and just enough offense to edge the Bears.  And finally, in week 5 with Cutler out with a concussion, backup Collins threw four picks against the Panthers and still won the game.  This game shows just how god-awful the Panthers are and not how good the 4-1 Bears are.  So the Bears will fade and the Packers will win that division.....probably.  By the way, Jay Cutler will show up eventually and throw about 12 picks in 5 games.  Probably sooner rather than later.

Playoff Hopes?-  The Chiefs haven't had a tough road yet, but a part of me thinks that KC can actually get it done with their defense and running game.  In week 1, the Chiefs impressed with a win at home over the Chargers, sealing the victory with a goal line stand.  Although they were shut out for the second half of play, their defense showed up and preserved the win.  In week 2, they played a Cleveland Browns team, who at the beginning of the season, I would have equated with the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs barely escaped with a 16-14 victory.  But it was a well earned road victory.  In week 3 the Chiefs blew out the San Francisco 49ers, one of my picks to make the playoffs.  And going into week 5, they were the sole undefeated team playing.  Even in the 19-9 loss to Indianapolis, the Chiefs D impressed again.  So do the Chiefs have staying power?  Only time will tell, but this fan says yes. 

Shot at 'Ship- The Atlanta Falcons, who had a disappointing season in 2009 after a great rookie showing by Matt Ryan in 2008, looks like they're a strong contender for the Super Bowl.  After losing in week 1 to Pittsburgh's #1 Defense, the Atlanta Falcons thoroughly embarrassed the Arizona Cardinals 41-7.  And one week after beating one division winner from a year ago, the Falcons did it again, upsetting the Saints on the road, who enjoy the biggest home field advantage in football, 27-24.  In week 4, they escaped the 49ers, who put up 14 points in the first quarter.  Atlanta's D bore down and shutout San Fran for the rest of the game.  In week 5, the Falcons got another road victory, beating the Cleveland Browns, 20-10.  Their defense has been superb, and their offense good enough, and going to get better, in a weak NFC South division.  I say weak, because the Buc's will not live up to that 3-1 record and the miserable Panthers.  Will the Falcons be legit contenders for the NFC Crown?  Maybe, maybe not.....but this fan thinks they have a shot.

Divisions at a Glance:

NFC East
The Redskins, Eagles and Giants all share the top spot in the crowded NFC East, but the Redskins hold the tie breaker for now. --- If the Giants can live up to the last two weeks of play, they may be the best team in the NFC East, especially if the Cowboys don't get their act together.

NFC South

Saints disappointing, Falcons impressive, Bucs a nice story but not credible.  The Panthers are unbelievably ineffective on defensive line with the loss of Peppers, and have a rookie QB in Jimmy Clausen.  The Saints have the most talented offensive player in Brees at QB, but the Falcons may have the better all round team. 

NFC North

Bears have started off fast but will fade, Packers must play smarter, Vikings are a mess with Favre.  Going into the season I thought that the Packers had the best young team in the NFL, and still believe that, but they have to play more disciplined to make a good run.

NFC West

Not a more terrible division in all of football.  49ers played terribly in the first three games of the years, but showed something the last two, even while losing.  Cardinals have shown resurgence in the defense.  The Seahawks are most dangerous on special teams.  And the Rams are still rebuilding.  Probably the Cardinals again.

AFC East

Jets are showing that they are a top 5 team in the league, but will it come crashing down like every other year?  Or can new offensive additions LaDanian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes give the Jets fans what they've been craving for 41 years.  The Patriots, besides that loss to the Jets have looked okay.  The Bills are just a joke.  Miami is still a dangerous team.  They can put up some big numbers in that Wild Cat offense.  When will they break out Oregon's Blur offense?

AFC South

The Texans laid an egg against the resurgent Giants D last week.  The Jaguars are still flying high after that last second field goal against the Colts.  The Colts have been hot and cold this year, but this fan still expects them to win the division.  The Titans may be a playoff contender if Chris Johnson can handle the load.  Anything can happen in this division where everyone is 3-2.

AFC North

Flacco has been less than impressive, but all you need with that defense is a solid running game, and it showed some life last week with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.  Carson Palmer has evolved into a game manager and is no longer a play maker.  The Browns have Mangini.  Enough said.  Pittsburgh has looked spectacular on defense, allowing only 12.5 points per game.  They will only get better with Big Ben returning.

AFC West

This division is up for grabs, with the Chargers not playing up to par.  The Chiefs have come out fast and lead the division at 3-1.  The Raiders still don't have an NFL QB.  The Broncos are a mediocre team that will probably finish in the vicinity of 7-9.  Although the Chargers have started slow, they just might rattle off one of those 10 game winning streaks.

Usually by the end of week 5, you can see where the lines are being drawn, but it has been one of those weird seasons so far, with many teams playing above their talent, and many more playing playing below.  No one team will run away with their division.  There might be a chance to have no repeat division winner from 2009, and that only makes the season more exciting.  Bad play by good teams or bad teams getting much better?  More football required to make a decision.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Must See TV- Rangers @ Rays

The last spot for League Championship Series will be decided tonight.  And it's must see TV.  Two of the AL's best pitchers go head to head in a rematch of Game 1.  David Price, who struggled early and often against the Rangers last Wednesday, will look to redeem himself as a home team tries for the fifth time for its first victory in this series.  Last time out, Cliff Lee looked like he was going to give up quite a few runs in the first inning, but escaped with a few questionable call from the HP Umpire, and it was downhill for the Rays from then on.

Tonight it's a different story for the Rangers.  The Rays two most productive hitters, Longoria and Pena, have looked better in the last two games.  Longoria looks to be healthy again, and Pena is seeing the ball better from lefties.  By winning the last two games in Arlington, the Rays have stolen back home field advantage and the pendulum they call momentum is now in full sway towards the Rays.  David Price was unbelievably effective as a rookie in the postseason two years ago, however he was coming out of the bullpen, but was hit early on in his first career postseason start.  Price cannot afford to come out and throw like he did on Wednesday for one reason.  He's facing, in this fan's opinion, the best pitcher the AL has to offer in Texas' Cliff Lee.  Lee is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA, 6 BB and 47 1/3 IN in 6 starts in his postseason career.  Here's a guy who won't help your team out a lick.  In 212 1/3 IP this year, Cliff Lee has walked a miniscule 18 batters, which is less than 1 per 9 IP.  If you're the Rays hitters in this matchup, you have to know that if you don't get to Lee early, than you probably won't get to him at all.

The Rangers need to get at least 7 strong innings out of Cliff Lee, or they could find themselves in trouble.  In all likelihood, Price will go about 7 innings, and you need Lee to match him inning for inning.  The same rule applies to the Rangers as does the Rays.  If you're going to get to Price, you need to get to him early.  You cannot let this young gun get into a groove, or it could be a long night.


My Outcome:

The Rangers break their little skid and squeeze through to the ALCS.  Texas has finally found some quality pitching to go along with that high powered offense.  Cliff Lee pitches them into the ALCS to face the well rested Yankees. 

In a pitcher's duel, the Rangers will win 3-2.  At least this fan thinks so.

Monday, October 11, 2010

The Bridge and the Closer

A lot of experts have different opinions on what really puts a good team over the top to make them great.  Most good teams can get you the runs one way or the other.  But really, it doesn't matter if you play small ball like the Twins and Giants, or you have the boppers like the Yankees and Phillies.  Good starting pitching is a must.  During these playoffs, we have seen some great pitching performances from the likes of Roy Halladay- 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 BB for a no-hitter; Andy Pettite- 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 K; Phil Hughes- 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 6K; and Cliff Lee- 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 10 K.  All teams left playing October baseball, have that legitimate ace, with quality starters to follow.  Atlanta has shown that fundamentals is key in winning.  They are down 2-1 to the Giants because of poor play by their second baseman.  But in this fan's opinion, the most important part of your team in the playoffs is the Bridge and the Closer.  The late inning pitchers and the guys who slam door are the most vital part of October baseball. 

We have seen countless shutdown guys melt down in the post season.  Now, I say this objectively even though that I am a big Yankee fan.  The Yankees are my favorite to win the World Series.  With their bullpen being shaky for most of the regular season, Brian Cashman went out shored up their need for a setup man.  They have above average relief pitchers for the sixth and seventh innings with the likes of Boone Logan, David Robertson, and Joba Chamberlain; however, with the late season acquisition of Kerry Woods, the Yankees arguably have the best bullpen left in the Postseason.  If you didn't see Kerry Woods' high octane fastball and devastating curveball against the Twins, tune in to ALCS, because dollars to donuts, you will see him in just about every game for the Yankees.  Now, I don't know what Joe Girardi was thinking when he called for Kerry Woods on Saturday, a game in which the Yankees were up 6-0, when Chamberlain hadn't been used all series.  but even after Woods started to falter, the Yankees had someone they could turn to in the 9th.  The all important closer for the New York Yankees, who had one of his best seasons ever, although he did stumble down the stretch a few times.  Mariano Rivera is the best money could buy at his position, especially in the postseason.  If you look at most players stats whether they be pitchers or everyday players, the split between regular season and postseason stats is not that big of a differential.  But as the month of October gets colder, Mariano Rivera just heats up.  Check this out--- In 968 career relief appearances, Mariano Rivera is 74-55 with 559 saves, 1051 K, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 2.23 ERA.  Now take a look at his Postseason stats--- In 91 career relief appearances in the postseason, Mariano Rivera is 8-1 with 41 saves, 108 K, 0.77 WHIP, and an unbelievable 0.72 ERA.  The disparity between these numbers is astounding. 

Now take all the closers left in the playoffs.  Can any Phillies fan say with a straight face " I trust Brad Lidge to close the game out against the Yankees/Rays/Rangers"?  Can any Ranger fan say they trust Neftali Feliz, who has never been put in a situation like that.  How about Rafael Soriano?  The Giants' Brian Wilson?  Billy Wagner if he returns?  All these question marks,and only one sure thing.  And that sure thing is that no closer can do it better that Mo.  

Now don't get me wrong.  You can count on Brad Lidge.  You can count on the fact that sooner rather than later, Mr. Hyde will come out and he will throw up a 7.00 ERA for a series.  True, it has a less of a chance of happening this year because you have guys like Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels throwing gems all over the place.  But when the Phillies face a perennial Playoff team like the Yankees, who are disciplined at the plate, and work the count deep, Even Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels will need a little help from their bullpen.  And the Yankees can wait all game for that bullpen to start warming up.  Guys like Swisher, Teixiera, Gardner, Rodriquez, and Posada all work the count deep, and that equals up to a lot more pitches that usual.  Do you remember when the Yankees couldn't hit Pedro Martinez, and still seemed to beat that team often?  They waited him out, until the manager pulled him (except in '03) and beat his bullpen.  The Yankees still employ that same strategy when face today's premier pitchers. 

The good teams do two things.  They pitch better in late innings, and they hit your pitching in later innings.  The Yankees can do both, and that is why they're this fan's favorite to win the World Series.  That and because I'm spoiled and I expect them to win. 

Hakeem Nicks: Quickest Hands in the NFL?

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Disclaimer: I am a spoiled New York sports fan

I was born into a house dominated by Giants football and Yankees baseball.  My family has attended Giants games for over 60 years.  As a matter of fact, my grandfather was at the Giants game on December 7, 1941, the day Pearl Harbor was bombed.  They lost to the now defunct Brooklyn Dodgers 21-7. So I guess you could say that the New York Football Giants gene is deeply embedded in my DNA.  My father regularly started to go to Giants games in the 70's, specifically when they played at the Yale Bowl, or as my father would later describe it "the biggest piece of crap standing."  My grandfather, father, and his twin brother(my uncle) finally saw the Giants move in to their new home in East Rutherford, NJ in 1976, Giants Stadium.  My father was there during the lean years.  From 1973 -1983, the Giants had one winning season, barely.  They went 9-7 in '81.  He was there for the Giant revival in the mid 80's when Bill Parcells took over, and all suffering Giants fans were rewarded with their first Superbowl Championship and first NFL Championship in 30 years, when they beat Elway and the Broncos in 1986, the year I was born.  They did again against the tough luck Bills in 1990 when my brother was born. This is why I am spoiled.  I grew up on great defense....Michael Strahan, Jesse Armstead, and Jason Sehorn.  And before that I grew up on stories of Lawrence Taylor, Harry Carson, and the Crunch Bunch.  I watched Tiki shred up the field for some of the best seasons yardage wise any running back will ever have.  I witnessed Osi Umenyiora set a franchise record with 6 sacks against Donovan McNabb and the Eagles.  I witnessed Jason Sehorn's impossible interception against McNabb and the Eagles.  I was at the NFC Championship game against the Vikings when Kerry Collins went wild on the field throwing for five touchdowns and leading the Giants to a blowout 41-0 victory dance into the Superbowl.  And, finally I watched(on TV unfortunately) as my beloved Giants beat the Patriots in Superbowl XLII, probably the biggest upset in Superbowl history in 2007, the year my nephew was born(Is there a pattern here? I might want to have some sons).  What I'm trying to say is that I haven't seen the lean times as a football fan.  Since 1997 the Giants have made the playoffs seven times advancing to the Superbowl twice and winning it once.  Was I heartbroken in 2000 when the Giants flopped against the Ravens? Sure.  But did the Giants surpass my expectations for that year?  Absolutely.  Wellington Mara is famously quoted as saying "Today we proved that we're the worst team to ever win the National Football Conference Championship."  True, he said this tongue in cheek, but there was some sense in that.  And unfortunately they proved him right with that showing in the Superbowl against the Ravens.  But I'm not only spoiled as a Giants fan.  I first fell in love with sports in 1996............

Any Yankee fan is a spoiled fan.  The only decade the Yankees have gone through without a championship is the 80's.  My dad, my grandfather, my uncles, me, my brother, my sisters, my nephew.  We're all spoiled.  Now I just happened to start watching baseball in 1996.  More specifically the 1996 World Series.  To be honest though, the only real memory I have from that series is Charlie Hayes catching a pop up in foul territory and everyone storming their way towards John Wettland on the mound.  My dad's face lit up with excitement, and I was hooked.  I guess he experienced a little rough patch with the Yankees, having waited 18 years to see another championship, so it must have been a great feeling after almost two decades.  But for me, ever since that pop up, I was in love with baseball.  I remember the 1997 playoffs well.  Those pesky Indians with their clutch catcher knocking my team out.  And they couldn't even beat the Marlins!  I digress.  Still being the young Yankee fan, I watched as Derek Jeter, Andy Pettite, Bernie Williams, Tino Martinez, Scott Brosius, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Paul O'Neil, and a slew of other pinstriped favorites put together the most dominant season of baseball I have ever seen.  In 1998, the New York Yankees won 125 games including the postseason.  David Wells pitched the 15th perfect game in the history of baseball, David Cone racked up 20 wins, Bernie Williams won the AL batting title, and the Yankees went 11-2 in the postseason, sweeping the Padres out of the World Series.  One of my favorite Yankees at the time, Scott Brosius, won the Series MVP.  It was business as usual for the Yankees in 99 and 2000 as they swept the Braves out of the World Series and beat the Mets in a Subway World Series in five games, respectively.  I think this is the year that my friend Justin, became a Met fan.  I guess he was enamored with underdogs, and getting his heart broken.  I digress again.  Anyhow, After 4 Championships in 5 years, calling myself spoiled is a gross understatement.  When the 2001 World Series rolled around, I didn't have a care in the world.  The Yankees were in the World Series (again), and I was on top of the world.  Little did I know, this would probably be the best World Series I would ever see.  And this is where baseball reeled me in.............

The Yankees were down two games to none being thoroughly beaten down by a combined score of 13-1, before President Bush threw a strike to open Game 3 at Yankee Stadium.  Roger Clemens threw 7 solid innings of one run ball, while Scott Brosius came up with the clutch RBI single in the bottom of the 6th, and Mariano the machine closed it out edging closer to the Diamondbacks with a 2-1 victory.  Games four and five were ones for the books.  Curt Schilling was masterful on 3 days rest giving up one run on three hits in 7 strong innings.  The Yankees were down 3-1 heading into the ninth.  Derek Jeter failed to reach base trying to bunt for a hit.  Paul O'Neil laced a single to left.  Bernie strikes out and the Yankees are down to their last out.  Tino Martinez blasts a two-run home run to tie the game and force extra innings.  the Yankees get out of the top of the tenth inning cleanly and head to the bottom half, where Derek Jeter lengthens his New York Sports legacy by hitting the first ever November home run.  A walk off variety, and the Yankees even the Series at 2-2.  The very next night, the Yankees made some more magic.  The Mystique and Aura was alive and kicking in the 9th inning as Jorge Posada led off with a double against Byung-Hyun Kim, the same man who allowed the tying and winning home runs the previous night.  Kim settled down and retired the next two batters in order, when up stepped Scott Brosius.  On a 1-0 offering, Brosius crushed a game tying home run sending the match up into extras for the second consecutive night.  All was well with Yankees Universe when Alfonso soriano knocked in Chuck Knoblauch to win the game 3-2.  The Yankees and their fans felt shades of '96 and a 27th championship was in their grasp.  Game 6 was a laugher, with the Diamondbacks scoring 15 runs off an ineffective Yankees pitching staff.  It would all come down to two 20 game winners(Clemens and Schilling) in game 7.  The game was as billed.  A pitchers duel to its very core.  The Diamondbacks drew first blood on an RBI double from Danny Bautista, with the Yankees responding fast on a Tino Martinez RBI single.  Going into the 8th Brenly left Schilling in paying the price as Alfonso Soriano rocked a home run to put the Yanks up 2-1.  Brenly inserted the previous night's starter, Randy Johnson, into the game. He retired 4 batters in a row to keep Arizona alive.  Mariano Rivera came into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning and all of Yankees Universe started to celebrate.  A normal night for Rivera it was not.  Mark Grace led off with a single and David Delucci pinch ran.  Damian Miller bunted and Rivera errantly throws to Jeter allowing the hitter to reach base.  With runners on first and second Jay Bell Bunts but Mariano reacts quickly getting the lead runner at third.  Tony Womack doubles in the tying run as Yankees Universe hopes for another extra inning game.  But it was not to be.  After Rivera plunked Craig Counsell to load the bases, Arizona's best hitter, Luis Gonzalez, bloops and 0-1 cutter over the head of a lunging Derek Jeter to end the quest of 27.  I was crushed.  I was 13 and mad at the world that I didn't get my way.  How else could a young teenager feel.  The world wasn't right when the Yankees didn't win.  It didn't happen for us for another 9 years.  That's a long time for me.  Now any other fan is baseball would probably sign up for that right now. But again....I'm spoiled.

The Yankees 'finally' broke through their mini-drought to win in '09 against the Phillies, but that 2001 series is my most memorable one, even though they lost.  The excitement of extra inning baseball....bottom of the ninth, two out home runs to tie the game, the walk-offs, but in the end the heartbreak.  It let's you know you're a real fan.  The heartbreak let's you know that even though you don't have a uniform, you're a Yankee, or a Met, or a Dodger, and so on.

So out of the 15 years I have been watching baseball, the Yankees have reached the postseason an astounding 14 times, winning seven pennants and five championships. And out of the 14 years I have been watching football, they have made the playoffs 7 times reaching the Superbowl twice, winning it once.  If this doesn't add up to spoiled, I don't know what does.

Although the title of this post is Disclaimer, it's also a Promise.  I am a spoiled, at times obnoxious New York Giants/Yankees fan, and will root for them with gusto.  I will complain when they are bad and brag when they are succeeding.  But I promise that I will always be fair to all teams and fans.....or, at least I will try.  You can't ask more from this fan.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Just this Fan's take on End of Year Awards

This year's MLB regular season has come to an end.  And after every season, you hear all the experts give their opinions on the year's most likely hardware candidates.  This year, the year of the pitcher, has seen outstanding pitching from unlikely sources, but the same guys lead the pack in the conversation.  Even with all this brilliant pitching, which featured 5 no hitters, two of them being perfect games, and one should-have-been perfect game, there has been some eye-popping offensive numbers from the likes of Josh Hamilton, Robbinson Cano, Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera.

AL Cy Young
CC Sabathia led the AL in wins with 21 and posting an ERA of 3.18, as his AL East counterpart, David Price posted 19 wins with an ERA of 2.27.  But who is the front runner for the AL Cy Young Award?  Traditionalists do say Sabathia or Price, but the Sabermetricians have an all together different view.  The poster boy for the Sabermetricians this year is without a doubt Felix Hernandez of the dreadful Seattle Mariners.  King Felix posted a miniscule ERA of 2.27; however, he barely posted a .500 winning percentage, going 13-12.  We cannot blame Hernandez for this, as the Mariners are probably the most light hitting team in the major leagues, but is that record deserving of a Cy Young award?  Last year, the Cy Young from either league didn't win 17 games.  While I am tempted to give the nod to Hernandez, I cannot ignore the record and I hereby declare CC Sabathia the AL's Cy Young for 2010.  Although Sabathia had a slightly higher ERA, by winning two more games than Price, close to 30 more innings pitched, and more strikeouts recorded, I have to award the hefty lefty with his second Cy of his career. 
1. CC Sabathia
2. David Price
3.Felix Hernandez
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Cahill(Oak), Clay Bucholz(Bos),  Justin Verlander(Det)

NL Cy Young
At the halfway point of the season, this was a very close debate with Ublado Jimenez usually winding up as the NL Cy Young, followed by Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, and Adam Wainwright.  That is why they play 162 games.  Jimenez deteriorated throughout the second half of 2010, Johnson was injured for much of the second half, and Wainwright is just not Roy Halladay.  This pick is a no-brainer folks.  Roy Halladay won 21 times, tops in the NL, posted a 2.44 ERA, good for 3rd in the NL, pitched 9 complete games, one of them being of the perfecto variety!
1. Roy Halladay
2. Adam Wainwright
3. Ubaldo jimenez
Honorable Mentions: Tim Hudson(ATL), Chris Carpenter(StL), Matt Latos(SD)

AL MVP
Who to chose, who to chose?  Let's start in the AL East.  Robbie Cano put up some gaudy numbers as a second baseman this year hitting .319 with 29 HRs and 109 RBI.  He is the first second baseman since Carlos Baerga in 92-93 to record 200 hit season in consecutive seasons.  Hitting in the Yankees lineup definitely helps, but was third on the team in HRs and RBI, not making his case all that convincing.  Jose Bautista clubbed 54 round trippers with 124 RBI this year, however his batting average was sub-par hitting only at a .260 clip.  Miguel Cabrera put up some monster numbers this year, hitting .328 with 28 HRs and 126 RBI, placing in the top 3 in the triple crown stats.  Josh Hamilton hit 23 points better than anyone in the majors with a .359 average, 32 HRs, and 100 RBIs.  the nod must go to Cabrera.  What topped it off was that the was in the top 3 in the big 3.
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Robinson Cano
Honorable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero(TEX), Alex Rodriguez(NYY), Delmon Young(MIN)

NL MVP
This one is a little easier for me.  The resurgent Cincinnati Reds had the NL's best offense.  And the reason is Joey Votto.  He hit .324. with 37 HRs and 113 RBI.  That's top three in the big three.  He is the single most valuable player for any team in the NL.  While Pujols and Gonzalez, hitting .312 42 HRs and 118 RBI for Pujols and .336 32 HRs ans 117 RBI for Gonzalez, Votto is the lone player in this discussion still playing baseball, and is once again the most important player for any team in NL.  The MVP goes to Votto.
1. Joey Votto
2. Carlos Gonzalez
3. Albert Pujols
Honorable Mentions: Ryan Howard(PHI), Adrian Gonzalez(SD), Troy Tulowitzki(COL)

AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Neftali Feliz
2. Austin jackson
3. Brennan Boesch

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Buster Posey
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Jason Heyward

AL Manager of the Year
1. Ron Gardenhire
2. Terry Francona
3. Ron Washington

NL Manager of the Year
1. Dusty Baker
2. Bud Black
3. Bobby Cox