Wednesday, October 13, 2010

NFL Lack of Leaders

If anyone was looking for an encore of last season's presence of dominating forces in the NFL, well you must be disappointed.  From this fan's view, the lack of a true power in the NFL has led to a slew of great games, huge surprises, and a lot of lost bets.

Last season's two Super Bowl competitors stumbled in the first 5 games of the year.  The Colts (3-2) and the Saints (3-2) are both in third place in their respective divisions, meanwhile surprises like the Chiefs (3-1), and the Redskins (3-2) both have either a share or an outright claim to first place in their divisions.  Is this the beginning of the end for lopsided competition in the NFL, or merely an aberration?  Last year, both the Colts and Saints made deep runs into the season as undefeated teams; however, this year both teams have accrued two losses while not even a third of the way through the season.  This how my Playoff Picks started this year (from 1st to 6th):

AFC
Colts
Chargers
Jets
Ravens
Patriots
Bengals

NFC
Saints
Packers
Cowboys
49ers
Giants
Falcons

Can anyone tell me that they feel absolutely confident about 50% of these picks?  I picked the 49ers, yes.  I'm sure it was a popular pick this year, but now I find myself saying, "What the hell was I thinking?"  I was so high on their defense this year, that in my fantasy league, I drafted them before the Vikings, who were still on the board.  That pick might have been a stretch, I admit, but winless?  Come on now.  The Chargers are 2-3.  Come on Norv, you make Charger fans beg for Martyball.  How does a team with as much talent as the Chargers lose to the hapless Raiders?  Yes I know the Chargers were on the road, but 3 losses is far too many for the Chargers this early in the season.  The Cowboys are by far the biggest disappointment so far this season.  Sitting at 1-3, 1.5 games behind the rest of the division, is not where anyone expected this team to be.  Many experts and analysts considered them favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year, and while they haven't been awful, they surely haven't flexed any of their muscles.  Teams will start to double and triple Miles Austin, who already has three 100-yard receiving games already in this young season.  It will only get harder for Romo and Austin to hook up.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons, Bears, and Chiefs have all excelled and have claim to the top spot in each of their divisions; however, do these teams have staying power, or will they fade into the mediocrity that is NFL right now?  This fan believes one team has a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, another has a decent shot at the playoffs, while one will fade.

The Fade-  The Bears are smoke and mirrors.  The Bears have gotten lucky- With scheduling, with sloppy play, and with Jay Cutler.  In week 1 of regular season play, the Bears squeezed out a win on a horrible rule/call, whatever you believe.  Calvin Johnson made a spectacular touchdown catch for the Lions that should have won them the game, but the last second touchdown was disallowed and the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win against the lowly Lions.  Then they beat the Cowboys, who are just beating themselves right now, in week 2.  Week 3 was an ugly showing by, in this fan's opinion, a real contender in the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers made too many mental mistakes with 18 penalties, and only lost by 3 points.  In week 4, the Bears were exposed when they played a pumped up Giants defense who barely allowed a 100 yards and three points, while knocking Cutler and backup Collins out of the game.  With 9 sacks in the 1st half alone, the Giants played inspired D and just enough offense to edge the Bears.  And finally, in week 5 with Cutler out with a concussion, backup Collins threw four picks against the Panthers and still won the game.  This game shows just how god-awful the Panthers are and not how good the 4-1 Bears are.  So the Bears will fade and the Packers will win that division.....probably.  By the way, Jay Cutler will show up eventually and throw about 12 picks in 5 games.  Probably sooner rather than later.

Playoff Hopes?-  The Chiefs haven't had a tough road yet, but a part of me thinks that KC can actually get it done with their defense and running game.  In week 1, the Chiefs impressed with a win at home over the Chargers, sealing the victory with a goal line stand.  Although they were shut out for the second half of play, their defense showed up and preserved the win.  In week 2, they played a Cleveland Browns team, who at the beginning of the season, I would have equated with the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs barely escaped with a 16-14 victory.  But it was a well earned road victory.  In week 3 the Chiefs blew out the San Francisco 49ers, one of my picks to make the playoffs.  And going into week 5, they were the sole undefeated team playing.  Even in the 19-9 loss to Indianapolis, the Chiefs D impressed again.  So do the Chiefs have staying power?  Only time will tell, but this fan says yes. 

Shot at 'Ship- The Atlanta Falcons, who had a disappointing season in 2009 after a great rookie showing by Matt Ryan in 2008, looks like they're a strong contender for the Super Bowl.  After losing in week 1 to Pittsburgh's #1 Defense, the Atlanta Falcons thoroughly embarrassed the Arizona Cardinals 41-7.  And one week after beating one division winner from a year ago, the Falcons did it again, upsetting the Saints on the road, who enjoy the biggest home field advantage in football, 27-24.  In week 4, they escaped the 49ers, who put up 14 points in the first quarter.  Atlanta's D bore down and shutout San Fran for the rest of the game.  In week 5, the Falcons got another road victory, beating the Cleveland Browns, 20-10.  Their defense has been superb, and their offense good enough, and going to get better, in a weak NFC South division.  I say weak, because the Buc's will not live up to that 3-1 record and the miserable Panthers.  Will the Falcons be legit contenders for the NFC Crown?  Maybe, maybe not.....but this fan thinks they have a shot.

Divisions at a Glance:

NFC East
The Redskins, Eagles and Giants all share the top spot in the crowded NFC East, but the Redskins hold the tie breaker for now. --- If the Giants can live up to the last two weeks of play, they may be the best team in the NFC East, especially if the Cowboys don't get their act together.

NFC South

Saints disappointing, Falcons impressive, Bucs a nice story but not credible.  The Panthers are unbelievably ineffective on defensive line with the loss of Peppers, and have a rookie QB in Jimmy Clausen.  The Saints have the most talented offensive player in Brees at QB, but the Falcons may have the better all round team. 

NFC North

Bears have started off fast but will fade, Packers must play smarter, Vikings are a mess with Favre.  Going into the season I thought that the Packers had the best young team in the NFL, and still believe that, but they have to play more disciplined to make a good run.

NFC West

Not a more terrible division in all of football.  49ers played terribly in the first three games of the years, but showed something the last two, even while losing.  Cardinals have shown resurgence in the defense.  The Seahawks are most dangerous on special teams.  And the Rams are still rebuilding.  Probably the Cardinals again.

AFC East

Jets are showing that they are a top 5 team in the league, but will it come crashing down like every other year?  Or can new offensive additions LaDanian Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes give the Jets fans what they've been craving for 41 years.  The Patriots, besides that loss to the Jets have looked okay.  The Bills are just a joke.  Miami is still a dangerous team.  They can put up some big numbers in that Wild Cat offense.  When will they break out Oregon's Blur offense?

AFC South

The Texans laid an egg against the resurgent Giants D last week.  The Jaguars are still flying high after that last second field goal against the Colts.  The Colts have been hot and cold this year, but this fan still expects them to win the division.  The Titans may be a playoff contender if Chris Johnson can handle the load.  Anything can happen in this division where everyone is 3-2.

AFC North

Flacco has been less than impressive, but all you need with that defense is a solid running game, and it showed some life last week with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.  Carson Palmer has evolved into a game manager and is no longer a play maker.  The Browns have Mangini.  Enough said.  Pittsburgh has looked spectacular on defense, allowing only 12.5 points per game.  They will only get better with Big Ben returning.

AFC West

This division is up for grabs, with the Chargers not playing up to par.  The Chiefs have come out fast and lead the division at 3-1.  The Raiders still don't have an NFL QB.  The Broncos are a mediocre team that will probably finish in the vicinity of 7-9.  Although the Chargers have started slow, they just might rattle off one of those 10 game winning streaks.

Usually by the end of week 5, you can see where the lines are being drawn, but it has been one of those weird seasons so far, with many teams playing above their talent, and many more playing playing below.  No one team will run away with their division.  There might be a chance to have no repeat division winner from 2009, and that only makes the season more exciting.  Bad play by good teams or bad teams getting much better?  More football required to make a decision.

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