Two rookie quarterbacks face off in the first game of the 2012 playoffs, and the Houston Texans get their first ever playoff game at home versus a smash mouth football team, the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton has been a revelation this year, and the Bengals are set up for not only today, but for the future as well. Trading away Carson Palmer was the best thing that Mike Brown could have ever done for this organization. Not only has Brown done a fantastic job trading away Palmer, but letting Jonathan Joseph leave and go to the Texans has not hurt this secondary as many people thought it would have. The signing of 11 year veteran, Nate Clements, has proven invaluable this season as he has led the the secondary as the 9th best passing defense in the league. Drafting AJ Green in the first round and Andy Dalton in the second, it is hard to argue that many other teams had a more meaningful draft in such a short period of time. So key free agent moves and great drafting by Brown and the Bengals have this young core of Bengals poised to make runs at the NFC North for years to come.
The Bengals boast a good defense, but not as good as Wade Phillips' Texans. One year ago the Texans were giving up the most passing yards in the league. This year, Phillips has installed the 3-4 base defense and it has paid off huge dividends. They are the 3rd ranked passing defense and the 4th ranked rushing defense. No wonder Wade always gets chances as a head coach. This guy really knows how to coach a defense, and all of this without their best defender, Mario Williams. They have the second ranked defense in the league behind only the Pittsburg Steelers. To go along with that smash mouth defense is their smash mouth running game, which is ranked second, but I will call it the best in the game. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have run roughshod over the league all year. The weakest spot of this team is at quarterback, and it's a shame. If Matt Schaub didn't get injured, this could have been a legitimate Super Bowl favorite. They are so deep into their depth chart at quarterback, they had to sign washed up Jake Delhomme. To make matters worse, their third string rookie, TJ Yates, is banged up.
The Pick:
Cincinnati +3 over HOUSTON, and Cincy wins. Love their defense, and not crazy about TJ Yates. Or Jake Delhomme.
The Lions have made the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. Wow. Congratulations to Jim Schwartz and his young team, but my condolences on having to face the best offense in the history of professional football in the opening round. The Lions have a good offense too, but the Saints are just machines. Drew Brees is now the record book when it comes to single season passing records. How many weapons can you give a guy like Drew Brees? One of the premier tight ends in football, Jimmy Graham, standout wide receiver, Marques Colston, the speedy lightning rod, Darren Sproles, and serviceable 4th options such as Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem. That all adds up to the best passing attack in the league, which is coupled by the 6th best rushing attack in the league. What was a 4-headed rushing attack has been reduced to 3 due to Mark Ingram's injury, but Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Chris Ivory will give you enough fits without him. The Saints are 8-0 at home and have scored under 31 points at home just once this season.
Matt Stafford is my comeback player of the year. Last week he threw for 520 yards and 5 touchdowns, and it wasn't enough to win the ball game. that's the biggest problem with the Detroit Lions. Their pass defense is one of the most porous in the league. They are ranked 22nd in the league, and they made Matt Flynn look like Dan Marino. If the Lions are going to have any chance in this game, they will need to rattle Drew Brees, which will prove very difficult. Brees has a very capable offensive line, as he has only been sacked 24 times this year which is 1.5 times per game. the Lions need to get pressure and keep it close until the 4th quarter where Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson have put on exhibitions this year. The problem, is that so has Drew Brees and company.
The Pick:
Detroit +11.5 over NEW ORLEANS. New Orleans definitely wins the game. Both defenses are shaky at best. I like Stafford to keep it close.
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