The Giants travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in the 8th postseason game between theses two teams today at 6:30 pm. The 49ers hold the postseason series advantage 4-3, with their last victory coming in the 2003 classic wild card round in San Francisco. While I still remember the day, these Giants won't because none of them played in the game, so it isn't a revenge game as some of the fans will have you believe. Back in the 80's and 90's, it was the Giants who had the great defense to the 49ers tremendous offense. This time around the switch is flipped, and it will be a whole different ball game. The Giants lost the last time they visited Candlestick Park in week 10. But, they have never lost a NFC Championship game, at home or on the road (4-0). Let's take a look at each position/group for both of these teams.
Quarterback
Alex Smith has played well all year. I find it strange that I actually just typed those words. Who would have thought that Alex Smith could have resurrected his career like this? His QB rating was 90.7, which was good for 9th in the NFL. Now, he only attempted about 27 passes per game, but in 445 attempts, Smith has turned the ball over just 10 times, including fumbles. That is great protection of the ball. Smith only averaged 197 yards per game, but with the 49ers running game and defense, he just needed to limit his mistakes. He did more than that versus the Saints last week. He out dueled Drew Brees and their number 2 offense to win a surprising shootout 36-32. Smith was mobile in the pocket, didn't turn the ball over, and was deadly in his hookups with Vernon Davis. In 5 attempts of over 20 yards to Davis, Smith was 5 for 5 with 2 touchdowns. That can create a bit of a match up problem for the Giants.
Eli Manning has bailed the Giants out of tough spots all year for the Giants. Versus the Patriots, versus the Cardinals, versus the Cowboys, and came very close in the final seconds versus the 49ers in week 10. Manning has had his most consistent season of his career in 2011, and it has carried into the playoffs. In the postseason, Manning has a 68% completion percentage, averaging 303 yards per game, and has thrown for 6 touchdowns against 1 interception. Most importantly, is there anyone you'd rather have leading your team in the 4th quarter than Eli Manning this season?
Edge:
Running Game
The San Francisco 49ers have lived on the run this year. In the regular season the 49ers rushed for 128 yards per game, which was 8th in the league. Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have combined to rush for nearly 1,700 yards this season along with 8 touchdowns. Where this team suffers in the run game is in the red zone. They have settled far too often for field goals, when they should be punching their ticket for 6 points. Last week, San Fran averaged 6.5 yards per rush against the Saints on just 22 attempts which totaled 143 yards. Their running game should be important on a wet and sloppy field later today.
The Giants had trouble rushing the ball last week versus the Packers, after what looked like a rejuvenated rushing attack in the previous four weeks. Give Kevin Gilibride credit. He sticks with the running game. The Giants attempted 27 rushes last week, for a total of 95 yards, which was only a gain of 3.5 yards per carry. Bradshaw and Jacobs each had a long rush at the end of the game to get those numbers where they are. New York needs to run the ball a little better today if they are to leave San Fran representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Edge:
Receiving Corps
The 49ers aren't deep at this position by any stretch. Their best wide out is Michael Crabtree who had 874 yards and 4 touchdowns in the regular season. Their biggest threat in the passing game has to be Vernon Davis. He is a nightmare match up with these Giants linebackers. Last week Davis scorched the Saints for 180 yards on 7 catches with 2 touchdowns. After Davis and Crabtree, it's a motley crew of Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn, Jr.
This is the most talented part of the Giants team. The Giants wide receivers are not fun to cover. Cruz and Nicks are proving to be the best 1-2 punch in any receiving corps in the league since Fitzgerald and Boldin were with the Cardinals. Both receivers had 1,100+ yard seasons, with 16 touchdowns between them. Cruz looks like Manning's favorite third down target, a distinction former pro bowler Steve Smith used to hold. Both Nicks and Cruz can burn defenses for the long play, and it seems like it happens week in and week out for this team. If both of these receivers command double coverage later today, look for Manningham, who is a stellar 3rd option, to have a productive game.
Edge:
Offensive Line
The 49ers have a decent offensive line, depending on what kind of team you are. If you are a running team, which is what the 49ers are, then they have a very good offensive line. They helped Gore and Hunter to the 8th best rushing attack in the league. In pass protection, they fail. By a lot. Alex Smith was sacked 44 times this season. That is the most in the NFL. If the 49ers try to pass the ball often, like they did last week versus the Saints, they can be in a world of trouble. Last time these two teams played Osi Umenyiora was not healthy, and Justin Tuck was nursing his own injuries. Now that they are at full strength, or at least pretty close to, it is not a good match up for the 49ers.
Edge:
Secondary
Before I start on the just the secondary, let me just say that this entire defense is ridiculously good. Now that's out of the way......The 49ers "No-name" secondary is pedestrian in allowing yards. They are ranked 16th in the NFL, which is exactly in the middle. Where they excel is taking the ball away. The Sand Fran secondary recorded 22 interceptions this season, which was second most in the NFL by any secondary (GB was 1st). The 9ers give up a few yards in the air, but they can make you pay with the threat of a turnover, as they showed Drew Brees last week (2 INTs). Drew Brees did shred this secondary last week for 462 yards and 4 TDs, which is more than the Giants have allowed in two games.
The Giants, in the regular season, were one of the worst passing defenses in the league (29th). They too can take the ball away at a moments notice. The Giants secondary recorded 18 interceptions in the regular season, and one last week, a nifty dive and catch by Deon Grant. In the postseason, however the Giants have turned it around. New York held Matt Ryan to 199 yards and no scores and Aaron Rodgers to 264 yards two scores with a pick. Antrel Rolle is the fiery leader of this secondary, and he has backed up his recent talk with his superb play in recent weeks.
Edge:
Linebackers
Last week, I called the Packers linebackers the best in the playoffs. I admit, I spoke way too fast, forgetting that the 49ers not only have the best linebackers in the playoffs, but arguably in the entire game. NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are both top 10 linebackers in the league, and I daresay that Willis is the best. In Willis' 13 games this season, he has racked up 97 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, and 1 interception. NaVorro Bowman has recorded 111 solo tackes, and 143 combined! this guy just hustles after the guy with the ball. These two guys must be scary to look at from the other side of the ball.
The Giants linebackers, once again, played well last week. They shut down Tony Gonzalez two weeks ago, and last week, Jermichael Finley was held in check. Michael Boley, in my opinion, was the defensive co-player of the game with 9 tackles, 2 sacks, and a pass defended. Chase Blackburn recovered a fumble and nearly scored, but in his own words is just "too slow". The news gets better for the Giants, as Mark Herzlich is listed as probable. The Giants are above average at linebacker. They need to focus on containing Smith in the pocket, and locking down Vernon Davis, where they will probably get help from a safety.
Edge:
Defensive Line
For a 3-4 base defense, which is not usually known for its pass rush, the 49ers have an excellent one. Aldon Smith led this team in sacks with 14. Smith lines up as a pass rushing linebacker, same as Elvis Dumerville and DeMarcus Ware. Smith is quick and has great hands. Justin Smith has 7.5 sacks as defensive end, and Ahmad Brooks has added 7 at OLB. I'm pushing Aldon Smith as a defensive lineman, even tohugh he is listed as a linebacker. Where this line really is effective is in their run stuff. The 49ers were 1st overall in run defense, and it starts up the middle with Sopoaga.
Edge:
Keys to the Game
The 49ers need to stick with what got them this far. Run the ball, and play great defense. While Alex Smith has played well this season, and great last week, do not try and do too much. Harbaugh has gotten this team to the NFC Championship with toughness. Play hard every down, and try to disrupt Eli Manning. Don't let the Giants hang around. Take the points when you can get them. The Giants are 3-3 this postseason on stopping their opponent on fourth down. Don't chance it. San Fran has the better special teams. In the return game, the kicking game, and the punting game. Utilize them as best you can.
Exploit your match ups. The Giants can get after Alex Smith. That is the one biggest mismatch in this game. The Giants D-Line versus the 49ers O-Line. Don't overload the box like you did in week 10. Alex Smith can make some passes, and if their isn't help underneath, the 49ers can get a few big plays. Win the field position battle. San Fran has the best punter in the game, so if the Giants need to punt, they have to pin the 9ers deep. The Giants have the coaching advantage. Couglin has been here before, and the road doesn't scare the Giants.
Last week, I thought the Packers would beat the Giants, even though my heart said Giants. I went with my heart and picked the Giants. This week, my heart and head say the same thing:
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